Friday Horse Race

It's been a good week for Bush, as all indicators seem to indicate movement in his direction. I'm still optimistic that it's a pre-convention rush. My guess is that there will be a cascade of support for Kerry in October that will reinvent these maps. But in the meantime, the data pretty much contradicts such a hope.

So, let's begin with Tradesports. George Bush continues to gain favor in the Tradesports exchange. His election index, the price of a single contract for Bush in each state, has continued to show gains, mostly based upon a broad shallow boost across most states, rather than dramatic gains in any one state or region. The index's value now stands at 2887, which is nearly a fifty point gain over its lifetime low of two weeks ago. If each state were to deliver its votes in proportion to the odds (i.e., a state with a 98% chance of backing Bush were to deliver 98% of its votes), Kerry would win the popular vote by 54.7 million to 50.6 million, which is a margin of 4.1 million votes (+3.9%).

Major movements since last week:

• Weak Kerry to Strong Kerry - Iowa (39.9%), Michigan
  
• Weak Kerry to Weak Bush - Wisconsin (50.6%)
  
• Weak Bush to Strong Bush - Arkansas (63%),

Odds

Bush: Strong - 206; Weak - 78; Total - 274
Kerry: Strong - 254; Weak - 0; Total - 254

Meanwhile, in the polls, the race is continuing to get more complex. The overall trendline lately has been markedly in Bush's favor, but the map itself appears to be showing far more states in play than before. My guess is that this signifies a softening of certainty as the election draws near, rather than a gain for either candidate. But we'll see...

Anyhow, if each candidate were to receive votes in each state based upon their current averaged poll results, Kerry would win the popular vote by 48 million to 47.5 million which is a leading margin of +0.62%.

Major movers:

• Weak Kerry to Strong Kerry - New Mexico (+5%)
  
• Weak Kerry to Tied - Wisconsin
  
• Strong Kerry to Weak Kerry - Michigan (+4%), Pennsylvania (+3%)
  
• Weak Kerry to Weak Bush - West Virginia (+2%), Florida (+1%)

Polls

Bush: Strong - 178; Weak - 96; Total - 274
Kerry: Strong - 202; Weak - 49; Total - 251
Tied + Delaware: 13