Weekly Horse Race

Polling Data

Sorry it's been a while since I updated this feature. Two weeks ago DC Political Report moved over to a subscription based model, and now all the state-by-state polling data has been removed from the sphere of public knowledge. So I started doing my own damn research. I've found two major polling outfits that are covering most of the states of the union and maintain their own digests of polls they have conducted. Rasmussen Reports is available here, and Survey USA is available here. I don't know how they're getting away with it, but The LA Times is serving up the latest state-by-state results from The Polling Report. And lastly, David Wissing has a digest of all polls, state by state at his blog.

I've taken the average of the latest Rasmussen poll for any state, the latest Survey USA poll, the most recent poll listed on the LA Times website, and the most recent poll from David Wissing that was not conducted by Rasmussen or Survey USA, and gotten a kind of blended poll status. To be clear, I don't pretend this is scientifically weighted or anything. I just wanted some kind of polling benchmark that might swing a little less wildly that what DC Report does. The biggest methodological flaw is that if one of the other three is cited on the LA Times site, then that poll's "representativeness" will be slightly boosted. But since that means that it is also the most recent, it will actually tend to front-load the poll results... weighting the most recent highest.So, without further ado, here's the current breakdown of the nation's election campaign, according to the averaged polls:

Bush (>5%) - 174 E.V.; Bush (<5%) - 81 E.V.

kerry (>5%) - 154 E.V.; Kerry (<5%) - 95 E.V.

No Polls - 34 E.V.

TOTALS: Bush - 255, Kerry - 249

TradeSports Summary

Over at Tradesports, there appears to have been a surge in volume on the state-by-state futures which has driven overall prices up significantly. The race has swung back decisively towards Bush.

Bush (>10) - 249; Bush (<10) - 34; TOTAL = 283

Kerry (>10) - 210; Kerry (<10) - 45; TOTAL = 255