Battleground States

There are ten states which could presently be considered "heavily in play." However, some terrain is more favorable to the incumbent, and some to the challenger. I've grouped these ten states into 4 categories. "Strong Kerry" (blue) indicates a 30-40% chance of Bush winning the state, "Leans Kerry" (green) indicates a 40%-50% chance that Bush will win the state. "Leans Bush" (yellow) indicates a 50%-60% chance for Bush. "Strong Bush" (red) indicates a 60%-70% chance for the incumbent.

Here's the map:


Bush has really good chances in two of these states, Florida and Nevada. Florida contains 27 electoral votes making it a critical piece of any winning Republican coalition. Nevada only possesses five electoral votes, but if Bush lost it along with New Hampshire we could see a tie in the electoral college, making it important.
Bush's standing:
Florida: +4% (49.75%-45.5%)
Nevada: +3% (48.25% - 45.75%)

Kerry likewise has strong odds in two of these states. He has consistently led in polls of Oregon and New Jersey throughout the race, but both states are famously unpredictable and both have at various times indicated a strong possibility of a Bush victory. Oregon has 7 electoral votes and New Jersey 15 and it is almost impossible to imagine a plausible scenario in which Kerry wins without carrying both of these states.
Kerry's standing:
Oregon: +5% (43.3%-48.6%)
New Jersey: +0% (tied) (46.75%-46.75%)

Bush holds a decent shot of picking up Wisconsin in the 2004 election. The state holds 10 electoral votes. Kerry can "afford" to lose Wisconsin if he picks up some new states. West Virginia and Nevada together would compensate for the loss. Florida would easily offset it, and then some. Lately, Bush has been outpolling Kerry in Wisconsin, but over the course of the campaign the state has often appeared to be leaning Kerry's way. Bush's current standing:
Wisconsin: +4% (49%-44.6%)

Kerry is really going to have to fight to hold onto the five "ambivalently Democratic" states of New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Iowa. The states have a total of 47 electoral votes between them. It's possible Kerry could lose one or two (with the exception of Pennsylvania) and still eke out a narrow victory. But to have a chance he's going to need to hold all these states, and recent polls indicate that his lead over Bush througout the spring and summer has largely evaporated. Kerry's standing:
New Hampshire: +5% (44.25%-48.83%)
Minnesota: +4% (44%-47.6%)
New Mexico: +2% (45%-47%)
Pennsylvania: -1% (Bush lead) (48.5%-47.5%)
Iowa: -1% (Bush lead (47.5%-46.25)

So, that's the present state of play. In next week's installment of the Friday Horse Race I hope to provide a better sense of the shifts within these states.