Friday Horse Race

This week, I'm going to provide a lot more detail than is usual. I missed last week's Bush-upswing-entry, and as his meteoric rise in the electoral projections continues, it seems a fitting time to establish the exact "state of play" on the electoral maps. First, some housekeeping. Beginning with next week, I will be incorporating a new pollster into my weighted averages. The American Research Group (which tends to skew slightly high for Democrats) is now polling all 50 states. It would join Rasmussen and SurveyUSA as a regular pollster. I also use two other polling digests to calculate my averages (DC Political Report and David Wissing). I haven't decided yet if ARG will become a 5th column (so to speak), or if I should replace one of the digests (I rely on DC Political Report for the latest polls, whereas I use as a clearinghouse for recent independent polls).

OK, so enough about method. Let's first get the maps out of the way.

In the Tradesports exchange, Bush is doing phenomenally. The Bush Industrial Average (the price of one contract in every state) is at what is essentially a lifetime high of 3,137.6. The popular vote projection based upon these odds now has Bush leading nationally by a staggering 8 million votes, which is a pretty good indicator of how widely confidence has grown in Bush's chances. Here's the map of the odds:

Odds

Bush: Strong - 274; Weak - 10; Total - 284
Kerry: Strong - 207; Weak - 47; Total - 254

In the averaged polls, Bush has Kerry on the route, commanding a lead within states worth a decisive 303 electoral votes. If each state were to vote today based upon its average poll results, Bush would win the popular vote handily by almost 2.5 million votes.

Polls

Bush: Strong - 222; Weak - 81; Total - 303
Kerry: Strong - 189; Weak - 19; Total - 208
Tied + Delaware - 27

So, that's the basics. More detailed state-by-state breakdowns later in the day...