Friday Horse Race

It's been an excellent week for Bush, as he continued to mark pre-convention gains against Kerry in both the polls and the projections. Interestingly, Bush has substantially narrowed his wide gap in the popular-vote projection. According to Tradesports, he would now narrowly beat Kerry in the popular vote, and according to the polls, Kerry would only win the popular vote by around 100,000 voters.

George Bush continues to gain favor in the Tradesports exchange. His election index, the price of a single contract for Bush in each state, now stands at 2967, which is the highest I've yet recorded. If each state were to deliver its votes in proportion to the odds (i.e., a state with a 98% chance of backing Bush were to deliver 98% of its votes), Bush would win the popular vote by 53.2 million to 52.1 million, which is a margin of 1 million votes (+0.98%).

Major movements since last week:

• Strong Kerry to Weak Kerry - Iowa (42.5%), Minnesota (41%), Pennsylvania (43.5%), New Hampshire (41%)
  
• Weak Bush to Strong Bush - Ohio (62%), Missouri (61%), West Virginia (62%), Florida (62%)

Odds

Bush: Strong - 269; Weak - 15; Total - 284
Kerry: Strong - 212; Weak - 42; Total - 254

The results in the polls are somewhat more mixed. It's been my observation that, though Bush has enjoyed a marked pre-convention bounce, Kerry seemed to be gaining statistically significant points in several strong Bush states. The map doesn't show an increased closeness yet, but a number of states (Tennesee, North Carolina) are sitting on the threshold of competitiveness (which I consider a 5 point spread in the averages). But, enough with the starry-eyed good news. Here's the data:

Major movers:

• Weak Bush to Strong Bush - Virginia (+5%)
  
• Weak Kerry to Strong Kerry - Michigan (+5%)
  

Polls

Bush: Strong - 191; Weak - 83; Total - 274
Kerry: Strong - 209; Weak - 42; Total - 251
Tied + Delaware: 13

NOTE: There's a mistake in the map above. Florida should be yellow.