Friday Horse Race
In the Tradesports exchange, Bush has been gently coming down from the stratosphere. The Bush Industrial Average (the price of one contract in every state) stands at 3115 this morning. This gives Bush a projected advantage of 4.9 million votes (a gross distortion endemic to extrapolating from odds). It appears that on a state-by-state level the markets have growing certainty, as most states are pushing up or down towards their poles. Here's the map of the odds:
Odds
Bush: Strong - 291; Weak - 0; Total - 291
Kerry: Strong - 243; Weak - 4; Total - 247
In the averaged polls, Bush's lead held steady in the lead-up to the debate with marginal decliners here and there. My projection of electoral votes based upon extrapolation from polls gives Bush a 1.7 million vote lead in the popular vote.
Polls
Bush: Strong - 249; Weak - 42; Total - 291
Kerry: Strong - 181; Weak - 66; Total - 247
As you can see, an increasing number of states appear to be in play. It is astonishing how close the electoral college remains under all these various scenarios.
1 Comments:
Can you think of people anywhere in the world who should be less concerned about terrorism than the people of the "red states"?
Terror and Homeland Security, these are the big election issues, right? And these are the issues on which Bush is hammering Kerry, right?
So naturally people in terrorist target-rich areas like New York, Washington, California (Los Angeles) and Illinois (Chicago) should be for Bush, right?
I know, I know, those are "traditional" Democratic strongholds ... fine ... but then, can we really say that Terror and Homeland Security are the main election issues? Are people in Arkansas and Nebraska and Montana and Utah and Kentucky really more concerned about terror than anything else? And are people in New York, DC, LA and Chicago that cavalier about their personal safety?
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