Friday Horse Race

The penultimate edition....

I'm starting to think that TradeSports is an illustration of the fundmental foolishness of markets. But hey, that's just me. Bush's chances escalated sharply over the week, and the Bush Index (price of once contract in all 50 states) climbed back above 3,000. It presently stands at 3055.9. It's not that I think the market is wrong, but based on polling data, several close-call states seem radically overvalued - especially Colorado and Ohio. But we'll see. Here's the electoral outlook of the traders:

Odds

Bush: Strong - 254; Weak - 37; Total - 291
Kerry: Strong - 238; Weak - 9; Total - 247

Meanwhile, the race is turning into a nail-biter across the country if the polls are to be believed. In my projected popular vote, Bush is leading by about 800,000 votes. He is registering a slight edge in a broad number of states, but with the loss of Ohio he's only holding the electoral college by a slim majority. If early accounts of voter registrations are accurate, this doesn't bode well for Bush - as early evidence indicates there will be a number of new voters who don't appear in the polls. But don't pay any mind to my aspirational ramblings. If we just stick to the data at hand, here's the picture today:

Polls

Bush: Strong - 178; Weak - 98; Total - 276
Kerry: Strong - 186; Weak - 76; Total - 262

Notice, under this scenario, if you assume that green states break for Kerry (on the assumption that the challenger will do better among the undecideds), then Bush is the one skating on super-thin ice. The only states he can afford to lose are New Mexico, West Virginia and Nevada in this scenario. If he loses two of them, its over. Loses Iowa alone it's a tie. Anything else, it's Kerry's win.

If, on the other hand, you assume that remaining undecideds will skew towards Bush, then this race is already over.