My Own Guess

Last horse-race post until next Friday! I swear it!

I just realized that throughout this blog I've declared myself a forecaster and have failed to provide an actual forecast. I predict that Kerry will win in 2004. I think he will win with 311 Electoral Votes to George W. Bush's 227.

Below are my predicted outcomes. This represents my best guess from the current day (5/29/04). If the evidence moves decisively against my prediction, I plan to revise it (but with a big ding to my self-credibility). On the map below states in blue represent easy Kerry states. States in red denote easy Bush states. Green states represent states that I expect to be close, but go to Kerry. Yellow states represent states I expect to be close, but ultimately go to Bush.

Geoff's Predictions

Guaranteed Kerry - 190; Likely Kerry - 121

Guaranteed Bush - 190; Likely Bush - 37