The Reluctant Optimist

Hey, it kills me to think that Kerry's going to win the election in 2004. Well, except for the part of that belief which entails the defeat of Bush. I rather like that part, and can stomach all forms of later gastrointestinal distress just to savor it for a moment...

So sign me up in the category of "grin-and-bear-it" liberals who'd rather... well, let's not go on with it. I'm an ideologue and Kerry's a man. So, 'nuff said. He sucks. I can't stand John F. Kerry.

However, the stars appear to be aligning decisively in Kerry's favor. But off in the land of the Neo-that-May-Still-Speak-Its-Name, The Knight So Woefully Counterfeit has already been unhorsed...

Apparently believing that storm clouds must find their girth, there is no silver lining that Mickey Kaus is prepared to leave unslashed. In his "Dem Panic Watch" feature, Kaus regularly holds up the lack of traction that John Kerry is getting against Bush in head-to-head polls as evidence that the candidate is clearly failing to exploit the current political climate. While I'm sympathetic towards the argument... especially as a paranoiac who's greatest paranoia is defeat by his inner-paranoiac... (How dare I expect that the facts accord with my own desires?)... still, I gotta' say that Kaus is stretching (but someone's gotta' do it!).

First, when weighing Kaus' observations, I think it is useful to juxtapose them with the insights of William Saletan from September of 2003. In an article that was right-on in everything but tone, Saletan observed that Kerry's signature campaign strategy is to make of himself "a thin target."

At this stage in the campaign, the limelight is John Kerry's enemy. He's ugly. He's wooden. His speech is denser than a Christmas fruitcake. Given how manifestly unappealing John Kerry is it would be a disastrous campaign move to pull ahead early. The greater the lead, the greater the impetus to second-guess and scrutinize him. If he engaged the substance of the current political debate, rather than running a series of fluff-bio ads on cable news outlets... he'd make headlines and show up in news segments and alienate voters who actually hold positions.

John Kerry is protecting his anonymity. Why? Because, news can break too late... a candidate as unlikeable as Kerry doesn't WANT to be compared to a candidate as incompetent as George W. Bush. The man is running on a record which is certifiably worse than any 20th century president. He may beat Johnson in war, but not on the economy. He may beat Hoover on the economy, but not in questions of war and peace. Have you noticed the way that Bush's popularity plummets after he gives speeches? Nothing will serve him better than to turn his embarrasing monologues into a debate. Then he'll at least get the "chimp-in-a-suit" pity response... Kerry's best bet is to keep it quiet, and ironically to allow his opponent to define him.

If the Republicans have a weakness, it's to go too far. Though they tarred Gore with the image of a serial prevaricator, they did so in part by Gore's attempts to deny the proof! Since his ears were steaming, and where there's smoke... Gore undid himself. But if Kerry keeps his visibility to a minimum, while his opponent piles on with negative advertising, then the first impression of Kerry that voters will have will be based upon advertisings which are long on abstraction and short on man. Let the Republicans whip up a bogeyman of Dukakis-era liberalism run amok. When Kerry emerges into the spotlight in August, after the conventions, as a war hero with a Presidential pomposity (and hopefully measured control over his verbal effluence) and a certain gravitas... it'll be a downright relief. If anything, keeping quiet now while Bush goes on an early attack (and continues to sabotage the case in his own favor) will define expectations downward and bestow upon Kerry the Mediocrity a luminary appearance completely out-of-keeping with the tarnished star we of the obsessive-politic-watching have come to know and detest.

So, I'm not a fan of Kerry. But I'm expecting that, barring any unexpected major new developments, Kerry will win handily in November... And much to Mr. Kaus' chagrin, the causes will likely be exactly the same ones that he currently sees as Kerry's greatest liabilities...