On Maps of Expectation

Reader, "Bret" writes of my TradeSports tracking, "I haven't see you do an Zogby vs. Tradesports analysis where you figure out where the best bets are (where the gaps are largest) and where it would be possible to make bank on the clearly biased leanings of this "market." Tradesports is mostly jocks and libertarians, just waiting to be exploited.".

Well, Bret. Let's first state that the difference between Zogby and the "libertarians" betting on Tradesports is that the Libertarians will lose money if they're wrong (and I expect some will indeed lose money). Zogby, on the other hand, seems to keep earning his paycheck despite how wildly inaccurate his polls so frequently are...

That being said, I offer you Zogby's Predictions for the 2004 election.

Zogby Predictions

Kerry - 226; Bush - 176; Swing - 136

Is that wildly optimistic? Sort of...

I mean, I'll freely concede that Arizona and Nevada are POSSIBILITIES (but not Colorado)... but they're really long-shots. What's interesting though is that Kerry can win the election with the electoral map of 2000 plus Ohio. It's likely that he'll pick up New Hampshire besides, and he may very likely get Florida. The only states to have eroded to a point worth worrying about are Oregon and Iowa, and together they're still not worth as much as Ohio is. I privately suspect Delaware is in play, but it's hardly significant...

As for my rationale for highlighting changes in the Tradesports map and not the Zogby's...

well...

Zogby's predictions are finite. They aren't moving anymore. Meanwhile, Tradesports changes from week to week... considering how retroactive the Tradesports market tends to be...(example below) it's a far more reliable bellwether than Zogby's fantasies...

Dean's Market Value