Friday Horse Race - UPDATED

UPDATE: - Several polls came out this afternoon. Since the tablemaker is here at home, I had to update my data and found the results are now significantly different than earlier today.

Over the week, we saw a sharp dip in Bush's odds ratings in several previously strong southern states. Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee have each dropped into the 80% range. However, the only substantive changes were the movement of New Mexico from exactly tied to "weak kerry" and of Iowa from "weak kerry" to "strong kerry".

Odds

Bush: Strong - 222; Weak - 56; Total - 278
Kerry: Strong - 217; Weak - 43; Total - 260

On the popular map I've switched back to DC Political Reports from the LA Times because the LA Times simply wasn't updating their allegedly "most recent" polls, and thus were rapidly falling to the back of the sample herd. Since they were supposed to reflect the most recent poll, that was unacceptable. Also, though DC requires a subscription for detailed results, they do give the poll numbers if you mouse over a state long enough (thanks to k for pointing that out!) This was a busy week in polling, with Rasmussen planning to release over 20 states in the two week period. There has been some serious shifting of the maps.

West Virginia, and Ohio have shifted from "tied" to "weak bush." Pennsylvania has shifted from "tied" to "weak Kerry."

Wisconsin shifted from "weak bush" to tied. Florida have shifted from "weak bush" to "weak kerry." New Mexico shifted from "weak bush" to "stron Kerry".

Maine and Iowa have shifted from "strong kerry" to "weak kerry."

As it stands, Kerry is now leading the electoral college in the average of polls by a slender margin. It should be noted that some of this gain has to do with the very conservative results of FOX News getting cycled out, but that ARG, which polled New Mexico generally produces more conservative leaning polls than the other outfits.

Polls

Bush: Strong - 192; Weak - 55; Total - 247
Kerry: Strong - 187; Weak - 91; Total - 278
Tied (+Delaware): 13

Later today (after 5pm PST) I will update the TradeSports and Averaged Poll data tables (data for averaging available here.