Notes on Ohio

#1 - Demographic changes have favored the Republican Party.

#1A - Based upon census projections, a disproportionate share of population growth has occurred in the last three years in counties that went Republican in 2000, and much of the population decline has been concentrated in Democratic counties.

For example, Delaware County, north of Columbus, went to Bush over Gore by a ratio of 2-1 (36k - 17k). The census estimates that the population of Delaware County had grown by 20.74% between 2000 and 2003. By contrast, Cuyahoga County, where Gore prevailed over Bush by a margin of nearly as much (360k - 190k), the population is estimated to have declined by 2.16%.

Unless demographic changes in Ohio are having a disproportionate impact upon voters of one party over another, Ohio is growing more Republican.

If each county were to deliver its votes, as a proportion of total population, in the same ratio as in the 2000 election, Bush would prevail in 2004 by a wider margin than in 2000 - 184 thousand votes in 2004, as opposed to 165 thousand in 2000. (i.e., Cuyahoga County delivered 359,913 Democratic votes with a population of 1,393,978 (25.82% of total population voted Democratic). If its estimated population is 1,363,888, then we are estimating it would deliver 352,155 votes, or 7,000 fewer than 2000).

#1B - The historical trend likewise favors Republicans. In 1992, Bill Clinton carried 31 of Ohio's 87 counties. In 2000, Gore carried 16. If 2000 represents the "basis" of party affiliation in Ohio (two relatively untested apparent moderates), then we can say that Kerry has a baseline handicap of about 200,000 Ohioans which he will need to persuade (or Bush to alienate) in order to swing Ohio into the Democratic column in 2004.

#1C - Turnout: Taking population without factoring out non-citizens and minors, the proportion of Ohioans who voted in 2000 is 39.97%. The highest turnout rate was in heavily Republican Delaware County (48.89%). The lowest turnout rate was in the sparesly populated but heavily Republican Holmes County (22.65%) in central-NorthWest Ohio. Of the 49 counties which had turnout rates below the statewide average in 2000, 9 were carried by Gore. Of the 37 counties which surpassed the state turnout rate, 7 were carried by Gore.

If just the "underperforming" Democratic counties were to vote in 2004 at the state-wide turnout rate, the projected "Bush handicap" falls from 184,000 votes to 161,000 votes. If just the "overperforming" Republican counties were to vote in 2004 at the state-wide turnout rate, the "Bush handicap" would fall from 184,000 votes to 146,000 votes. Even taken together (relatively depressed turnout in Republican counties and relatively high turnout in Democratic counties) this would not likely sway the election.

Looking at this another way - partisan turnout per county we find that the Democrats would need to boost party turnout by 2% of the population in each county in order to attain a slender winning margin in 2004. Equivalently, Republican turnout would have to fall by 2% of the population per county to likewise turn the advantage to the Democrats. This margin-making difference would be 228,000 persons added to the vote tally by turnout.

This seems to indicate that the hope of boosting turnout to make the difference is naive. It will make some difference, but it is extremely unlikely that it can make enough difference to put Kerry over the top. Ohio is one state in which Kerry cannot hope to prevail without persuading a significant number (100k-200k) of Republican-leaning voters to back the Democratic ticket in 2004.