Friday Horse Race

UPDATE: Data tables are now current.

Big news on the Tradesports map. For the first time since I've started tracking, the odds favor Kerry in an electoral college majority of states. Confidence in Bush's standing has been dropping steadily and he's lost 10-20% in several states throughout the South.

Major movements since last week:

• Weak Kerry to Strong Kerry - Oregon (38%)
  
• Weak Bush to Weak Kerry - New Hampshire (47%), Florida (49%)
  
• Weak Bush to Strong Bush - West Virginia (64%)
  
• Strong Bush to Weak Bush - Missouri (58%)

Also, a new calcluation - if each state has exactly as many voters in 2004 as in 2000, and each state voted according to the trading odds (an outrageous hypothetical, but fun), Kerry would be leading the popular vote by a margin of 4.25%, or 4.5 million votes.

Odds

Bush: Strong - 216; Weak - 31; Total - 247
Kerry: Strong - 224; Weak - 67; Total - 291

On the popular map, Kerry continued to maintain the electoral lead which began to emerge last week, and several recent polls have indicated he's currently enjoying stronger support in several swing states. Major movers:

• Weak Kerry to Strong Kerry - Washington (+6%), Oregon (+5%), Minnesota (+5%), New Hampshire (+5%), Pennsylvania (+5%)
  
• Tied to Weak Kerry - Wisconsin (+1%)
  
• Strong Bush to Weak Bush - North Carolina (+4%)

We've moved into the mid-month polling slump. There will continue to be changes, but they won't be so dramatic again until the first two weeks of August. Also new, if each candidate were to receive the same percentage as their poll-standings of the votes cast in Election 2000, Kerry would be leading by 1.5%, or 1.5 million votes.

Polls

Bush: Strong - 177; Weak - 70; Total - 247
Kerry: Strong - 243; Weak - 48; Total - 291
Delaware: 3

Later today (after 5pm PST) I will update the TradeSports and Averaged Poll data tables (data for averaging available here.