Saturday, October 09, 2004

Was it Really a Tie?

I must've missed something. I even watched the late night rerun. I can't believe people are calling it a tie. Look at this Gallup recap:

Democrats rallied behind Kerry's performance by 87% to 8%, while Republicans rallied behind Bush's performance by a slightly smaller margin, 83% to 10%. But independents chose Kerry by a 16-point margin, 53% to 37%.

The reason the overall figures show only a slight advantage for Kerry, despite his greater margin among his own party and winning the independent vote, is that the sample of viewers had more Republicans (38%) than Democrats (32%) or independents (30%). Also, the sample of viewers support Bush over Kerry in the presidential race by 50% to 46%.

The poll shows a modest gender gap in the rating of the two candidates, with women choosing Kerry as the winner by a nine-point margin (50% to 41%), and men leaning toward Bush by a three-point margin (48% to 45%). In the first debate, male and female viewers gave virtually identical responses.


Is there some reason to think that 40% of Americans are partisan Republicans? Or are normal people ("Independents") likely to give Bush a decisive win? I don't undestand the gender distinction. How can you lead by 9 among 50% of the population and trail by 3 among the other 50% and come out with a tie? Are there that many more men in their group?

UPDATE: They appear to have ADDED 2% more Republicans since the first post-debate poll:

In this poll, 36 percent of those interviewed after the debate said they were Republican and 32 percent each said they were Democrats or independents.


Does this stem from assumptions of who was watching the debate?

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