Worst Case Senario

This isn't the most likely tie scenario, but it seems to rank as the worst.


The scenario is predicated on Kerry losing both Ohio, Florida AND New Jersey but eking out a tie by narrowly carrying Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Mexico, Arkansas, and New Hampshire. Why is it worrisome?

Well, it has Kerry prevailing in 23 states while Bush carries 27 (pretty much the nearest to an outright majority of states Kerry seems likely to come). New Jersey and West Virginia would be two states with Democratic delegations backing a Republican candidate with Kerry winning the vote in a large number of states with Republican-dominated Congressional delegations. States with "conflicted leanings": Tennessee, West Virginia, Arkansas, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada (assume Texas goes Republican due to redistricting).