Friday Horse Race

The moves on the Tradesports map were incremental. The "George Bush Industrial Average" (the price of a single contract in each of the 50 states) continued its overall decline. The composite dropped by 33 points from 2876 to a lifetime low of 2833. Most of the movements however, reflected a move away from volatility. New Mexico and Pennsylvania dropped into strong Kerry territory and Arkansas slipped back into the strong Bush column. New polls out of West Virginia have indicated that it is back in play, and it's price plummeted accordingly, and Nevada has been trading on the threshold of Kerry's advantage, with the last contract price at 50.5.

Major movements since last week:

• Weak Kerry to Strong Kerry - Nex Mexico (32%), Pennsylvania (35%)
  
• Strong Bush to Weak Bush - West Virginia (52%)
  
• Weak Bush to Strong Bush - Arkansas (63%),

If each state has exactly as many voters in 2004 as in 2000, and each state voted according to the trading odds, Kerry would be leading the popular vote by a margin of +5.76 (a gain of 1.52% over the week), or 4.4 million votes (up 1.6 million over last week).

Odds

Bush: Strong - 206; Weak - 68; Total - 274
Kerry: Strong - 250; Weak - 14; Total - 264

On the popular map, there has been little polling, and what polling there has been has tended to mix things up a bit. Nevada has plummeted on the basis of some new polls, Kerry and Bush are still trading leads in West Virginia, and a poll was released indicating ties in Minnesota and Iowa. Albeit by many slim margins, Kerry is currently crushing Bush in the electoral college. Major movers:

• Strong Kerry to Weak Kerry - Minnesota (+4%)
  
• Weak Kerry to Strong Kerry - Michigan (+6%)
  
• Weak Bush to Weak Kerry - West Virginia (+1%)
  
• Strong Bush to Tied - Nevada
  
• Tied to Weak Bush - Ohio (+4%)

Polls

Bush: Strong - 177; Weak - 49; Total - 226
Kerry: Strong - 236; Weak - 57; Total - 293
Tied + Delaware: 19

If each candidate were to receive a proportion of votes cast in 2000 equal to their current poll-rating, Kerry would be leading the popular vote by a margin of 1.68%, which is a rise of 0.08% over last week, or 1.6 million votes.

Later today (after 5pm PST) I will update the TradeSports and Averaged Poll data tables (data for averaging available here.