Unemployment

It's often assumed that the unemployment rate exerts an effect in elections. I'm not sure that it's so clear-cut as that. In 2000, Al Gore is what you would consider the incumbent. We would expect that a high unemployment rate would translate into an anti-incumbency vote. In truth, the opposite was more often the case.

In November of 2000, 17 counties had less than 1% unemployment. Of these counties, 13 voted in favor of George W. Bush. Intriguingly, 9 were in the state of Virginia. None of these counties are majority non-white. In November of 2000, 26 counties had greater than 15% unemployment. Of these counties, 13 voted for George W. Bush. 8 were majority white. Of these 8 counties (majority white, greater than 15% unemployment), all 8 delivered a majority of votes to George W. Bush. The remaining five counties were either majority Hispanic (Tulare County, CA; Colusa County, CA; Luna County, NM; Yuma County, AZ) and one was in Alaska (the Wade-Hampton Census Area, majority native Alaskan).

It will be interesting to see if unemployment creates an anti-incumbent fervor this election. The Wade-Hampton Census Area, for example, has been rewarded for its vote for George W. Bush with both the nation's highest gain in unemployment, and the highest unemployment rate (a 14.6% rise and a staggering 30.8% rate). The second highest gain in unemployment was in Coal County Oklahoma (11.7%), which had an unemployment rate in May of 2004 of 16.5%. The county delivered a slim majority to George W. Bush in 2000 of 1196-1148. Overall, 1970 counties have a higher unemployment rate in 2004 than they had in 2000. 1089 counties have a lower rate of unemployment. The rest have staid the same.

The greatest drop in unemployment has been in Swain County, North Carolina, where unemployment has dropped by 11.2% from an absolute level of 15.9% to a currently level of 4.7%. Swain County preferred Bush by 2224-2097.

31 of the counties which have experienced drops of greater than 5% in the unemployment rate over the last 4 years delivered a majority of votes to George W. Bush. The remaining 6 such counties preferred Gore. Of the 46 counties which experienced a growth of more than 5% in the unemployment rate, 30 had favored George W. Bush in 2000. The remaining 16 gave their majorities to Gore.

In May of 2004, exactly ten counties had an unemployment rate of 1% or less. In 2000, Bush carried each of these counties by more than 60% of the vote. 3 of these counties are in Kansas, two in Oklahoma, two in North Dakota, one in Montana and one in Oklahoma. 23 counties had an unemployment rate greater than 15%. In 2000, Bush carried 12 of these counties. 6 of these counties are in Alaska, 3 are in Texas, 3 in South Carolina, 2 in Lousiana, 2 in California, 1 in Kentucky, 1 in Alabama, 1 in Virginia, 1 in Oklahoma, 1 in Mississippi, 1 in New Mexico and 1 in Arizona.

6 of the 23 counties with more than 15% unemployment have a majority white population. All of the ten counties with less than 1% unemployment have a majority white population.