Friday Horse Race

Not much news on the Tradesports map. The odds have swung back to Bush's favor with the move of Florida from "Weak Kerry" to "Weak Bush". This swings the electoral college, but the overall swing was only a few points. The "George Bush Industrial Average" (the price of a single contract in each of the 50 states) is still declining. It presently stands at 2876 with some ground lost in Nevada, Ohio and Arizona. There were no major movements during the week, however.

Major movements since last week:

• Weak Kerry to Weak Bush - Florida (53.6%)
  
• Strong Bush to Weak Bush - Arkansas (59.9%), Nevada (58%)

If each state has exactly as many voters in 2004 as in 2000, and each state voted according to the trading odds (an outrageous hypothetical, but fun), Kerry would be leading the popular vote by a margin of 4.24%, or 4.4 million votes.

Odds

Bush: Strong - 205; Weak - 69; Total - 274
Kerry: Strong - 224; Weak - 40; Total - 264

On the popular map, a spate of new polls have indicated a shift to the center among the electorate. Two polls in Missouri showed Kerry with a slight lead, his commanding margin dissipated in Florida, and an outlier from Arizona projects Kerry with a one-point lead. Major movers:

• Strong Kerry to Weak Kerry - New Hampshire (+2%)
  
• Weak Bush to Tied - Missouri, Ohio
  
• Strong Bush to Weak Bush - Arizona (+3%)

Polls

Bush: Strong - 182; Weak - 34; Total - 216
Kerry: Strong - 229; Weak - 59; Total - 288
Tied + Delaware: 34

If each candidate were to receive a proportion of votes cast in 2000 equal to their current poll-rating, Kerry would be leading the popular vote by a margin of 1.62%, or 1.6 million votes.

Later today (after 5pm PST) I will update the TradeSports and Averaged Poll data tables (data for averaging available here.