Friday Horse Race

Apologies for the delay on this week's horse-race update. I had postponed putting the post up because I was trying to think of something meaningful to say about the meaningless minor swings we're seeing. Alas, there isn't much to observe about the data beyond noting that in both the odds and the popular polls, the electoral projection has been somewhat static lately. So, minor movements here and there throughout the week, nothing of much consequence. I'm guessing we won't see major and irreversible movement until after the Republcan Convention on September 2.

Major movements since last week:

• Strong Kerry to Weak Kerry - New Hampshire (41%)
  
• Tied to Weak Bush - West Virginia (52%)

Odds

Bush: Strong - 206; Weak - 68; Total - 274
Kerry: Strong - 250; Weak - 14; Total - 264

Kerry still leads the popular map, but there has been little noteworthy post-convention movement. Most moves we have sene reflect the ping-ponging state of opnion in the swing states, consistently vacillating between two adjacent categories.

Major movers:

• Strong Kerry to Weak Kerry - Florida (+4%)
  
• Weak Bush to Tied - Ohio

Polls

Bush: Strong - 187; Weak - 30; Total - 217
Kerry: Strong - 240; Weak - 53; Total - 293
Tied + Delaware: 28