Parsing a Swing State

In my county investigations, Nevada has struck me as an interesting state. I wasn't aware of this, but Nevada is one of the few states in the union in which the electorate is dominated by a single urban region. In November of 2000, there were 898,347 registered voters, 62% of whom lived in the Clark County (home of Las Vegas). 63% of the votes cast for one of the main party candidates in 2000 were also cast in Clark County.

Since 2000, the census estimates that Nevada has gained 242,000 new residents. It estimates that Clark County has gained 200,000 of these. Another 30,000 new Nevadans can be found in Washoe County, around South Lake Tahoe or in the city of Reno.

What can I possibly add to the wealth of information being served up to us electoral crack addicts?

I dunno.

There were 16,000 fewer registered voters in the state of Nevada at the end of June than there were in November of 2000. There were 50,000 more registered voters in Nevada in June of 2000 than there were in November of that year. Make of that what you will...

In 2004, the registration trend is moving in the opposite direction - i.e., people are registering to vote rather than disappearing from the rolls. Since January, the Democrats have gained 15,000 new registered members, the Republicans have gained 11,000 and the state as a whole has added 36,000 new voters.

The statewide turnout rate in 2000 was 65% of registered voters. According to polls I've seen, Democrats favor Kerry by a ratio of 4-1 (80%-20%). Republicans allegedly prefer Bush by a ratio of 9-1 (90%-10%). Independents make up the wild-card.

So, let's just game out one potential electoral scenario:
First:
Democratic Vote: 65% turnout, Kerry = 77%, Bush = 20%, Nader et al. = 3%
Kerry = 176,931
Bush = 45,956
Nader = 6,893

Second:
Republican Vote: 65% turnout, Kerry = 10%, Bush = 89%, Nader et al. = 1%
Kerry = 23,529
Bush = 209,409
Nader = 2,353

Sub-Totals:
Kerry = 200,460
Bush = 255,365
Partisan Margin = 54,905 votes

Registered Independents: 65% turnout would lead to 106,289 votes.

Now, since all independents weren't born alike, let's make some more assumptions:
Reform: 135 voters, 80% Bush, 20% Nader et al., 0% Kerry
Natural Law: 577 voters, 90% Bush, 10% other, 0% Kerry
Independent American: 13,298 voters, 90% Bush, 5% Kerry, 5% other
Green: 1,753 voters: 60% Kerry, 30% Nader, 10% Bush
Libertarian: 3,316 voters, 70% Bush, 20% Other, 10% Kerry

New sub-total:
Kerry = 202,506
Bush = 270,456

OK. There we go. Very pessimistic assumptions, but I'm trying to make conservative estimates to balance my tendency for wishful thinking.

Where does this leave us?

Bush would be besting Kerry by 67,950 votes before counting registered non-partisans.

There are 132,778 registered non-partisans. Again, assuming a 65% turnout that would lead to 86,305 votes.

Thus, to carry Nevada based upon current registration, Kerry would need to capture 78% of the non-partisan vote.

That's a mighty tall order.

I'd be focusing on voter registration and turnout. Since the population is higher than in 2000, but there are fewer registered voters, it stands to reason that a significant number of votes are floating around among the unregistered. I'm sure many of them are recent arrivals from other states. And without tapping into a new vein of support (or Bush fucking up) Kerry's going to have an uphill fight in Nevada