New Mexico

John Kerry should crush Bush in New Mexico.

Remember how, in 2000, Gore narrowly bested Bush by a margin of 366 votes?


Well, check out the registration data for the state. Democrats outnumber Republicans and independents COMBINED.

Bush carried 20 of New Mexico's 33 counties in 2000. In only 9 of those counties do Republicans outnumber Democrats.

There were 15 counties in 2000 where turnout was below the rate of the entire state. Bush carried 12 of these. In 6 of these Republican-voting, underperforming counties, Democrats outnumber Republicans.

It would seem that turnout among registered Democrats significantly lagged behind turnout among registered Republicans in 2000. This is a known tendency, and it's naive to think that it will change in 2004.

But what is clear is that New Mexico was close in the 2000 election because Bush attracted support from Democrats, and Democratic turnout didn't match Republican turnout.

If Kerry can generate sufficient enthusiasm and support from the state's Democrats, he can slip New Mexico into his pocket without hardly trying. If registered Democrats favored Kerry by 80%-20% and had a turnoutrate of 60%, Kerry could win with no more than 10% of the Republican vote and 20% of the Independent vote.

So, while every state hinges on Kerry's ability to persuade voters, New Mexico is one which especially pivots on the ability to rally the "faithful." Kerry will need to do especially well among the silent Democrats of south eastern New Mexico, where several counties give Democrats a registration advantage, but Bush captured a wide margin of votes in 2000...
UPDATE:
The first version of this post was more in-depth. Blogger ate it.

I forgot to mention that population has declined in 16 counties, 10 of which favored Bush in 2000.