Tuesday, August 31, 2004

BART Census of Books

Today, I found myself riding alongside an older gentleman in a dapper suit on my train ride home. Very well-dressed, distinguished gentleman, reading a newspaper. I myself looked like myself, and as I sat beside him, I was reading through this month's issue of Harper's... and uneven publication but often worth the price.

At one point, I looked over and caught him reading my magazine over my shoulder! Which isn't surprising, since the page I happened to be on was that part where they take a "primary document" and pick it apart. In this case, it was "diagramming" the components of a Republican chain email letter. When he saw that I noticed him, he quickly jerked his head back to his own paper. As I brazenly read over his shoulder, I realized he was reading the Op-Ed page of the Wall Street Journal.

Alas, there is no story of the meeting of minds here. I scanned the headlines of the page (an editorial on GOP reform or some such), finished my page, then put my magazine away, as I was nearing my stop.

Looking around the train, I decided to conduct a rough estimate of the number of people who were reading and try to get a sense of what was being read:

I would estimate that the train had about 150 occupants.

I would estimate that slightly over 50% of these persons were reading.

Of those reading, probably 75% were reading newspapers. The most popular was the San Francisco Chronicle. Second-most popular was The Contra Costa Times. There were a couple of folks reading The San Jose Mercury News and several reading The Wall Street Journal. One person looked to be reading The Financial Times (unless there's another pink broadsheet). Several were, of course, unrecognizable due to distance or vantage.

The remaining 25% were reading books. I only saw one man reading a book. I only saw one woman reading a hardcover book (jacket removed). Most appeared to be reading trade paperbacks, though there was one copy of Geek Love that could be picked out.

I often look at what other people are reading on the train, but never with a mind towards thinking anything about it. However, it strikes me that, for all the laments of non-literacy, a surprisingly large number of people (in cities, at any rate) read on the train, and a surprisingly diverse range of publications. Another observation I noticed was that I never see anyone reading San Francisco's tabloid daily The Examiner. This is only striking to me, because I remember seeing tons of people reading The New York Post on the subways of New York...

Wonder if that means anything?

Hmmm... maybe something to keep an eye on. Maybe not...

Butt Mints

Standing next to a truck on my lunch break, waiting for the light to change, I was passed by a woman who had apparently bathed in her perfume this morning. The odor was so overpowering that it actually drowned out the truck fumes! Well, I must have started losing oxygen to my brain because I was hit by a searing flash of inspiration.

Butt-mints! That's right... mint-scented suppositories! Activated by methane!

"If you just can't hold it, then why not mold it?"

It'd take a "public education" campaign of Proctor & Gamble dimensions. But I'm almost certain we could pull it off!

Perhaps we could make a rose-scented suppository called "Glade Scented Butt Plug-Ins" while we're at it...

UPDATE: Well, all good ideas are unoriginal. Apparently I've been beaten to the punch...

Another Bush flip-flop

Let's give him a pass on the whole "Winning the War on Terror" flap.

Instead, take note of this statement on 527s:


Let me talk about a larger issue, and that is 527s. I spoke to John McCain today, and I think these ought to be outlawed. I thought they ought to be outlawed a year ago, when I — whenever I signed the bill.


Structurally, how is this any different from Kerry's change of heart with regards to, say... the war on Iraq or the USAPatriot Act?

If he thought they should be outlawed when he signed the bill, then why on earth did he sign the bill? As the one man in the country with veto power, isn't he also the only man who can stop things that "should be outlawed" from being signed into law?

Why the Republican Party scares me.

Throughout the Republican Party, I don't doubt that there are a lot of truly sincere men striving to advance the nation's best interests. In many of their cases, I also have no doubt that their sincerity is advanced in the interests of causes I find abhorrent. But, hey, that's democracy. Most of us hold ideas that others find abhorrents, and if we can't discuss them openly, we're not going to have a very democratic process, are we?

Which brings me to my fear. Check out this article on Colorado Republican Congressman Tom Tancredo's efforts to get his anti-immigration proposals included as a plank in this year's party platform:


when the platform committee met last week to craft the document--to be ratified by delegates at the convention--Tancredo put forth three immigration-related amendments... Just as quickly as Tancredo proposed them, the platform committee voted down all three amendments.

This essentially spelled the end to Tancredo's hopes of having a strong immigration reform plank in the GOP platform, but he did have one last hope: a floor fight at the convention. There are two ways to bring a matter to the floor: One is to convince six state delegations to support the motion for a floor debate--a virtual impossibility, Tancredo realized; the other is to get 19 members of the platform committee to support bringing a matter to the floor. This latter route seemed doable to Tancredo, save for one problem: The congressman couldn't find out who, exactly, was on the platform committee. Running the platform process with all the discipline and secrecy that's come to be expected from the Bush White House, the RNC, citing security concerns, refused to divulge the identities of the handpicked delegates who served on the platform committee--even, in some cases, to other members of the platform committee.

So, to try to find 19 platform committee members to support his amendments, Tancredo had to get creative: He went on seven talk-radio shows late last week to plead with listeners to call him if they knew the identities of any members of the platform committee. By the time he arrived in New York on Sunday night, Tancredo had the names of four committee members. Of course, as Tancredo conceded to me in an interview last week, "I think we know who four of them are, but I can't even tell you if they're on our side." But before Tancredo could identify any other members of the platform committee to lobby to support a motion for a floor debate on his immigration amendment, the matter was made moot on Monday morning when the convention delegates ratified the GOP platform.


Shocking. If not even a sitting Republican Congressman can find out who's pulling the strings in his party's platform (not even their identities!!!), then who the fuck knows who's calling the shots?

It's little hints like this which make me really fear that the folks stifling the Republican Party's internal politics could have a truly toxic effect on this nations national politics.

Star Search 2004

If you have any interest in exosolar planets (now being sensibly referred to as "exoplanets"), there here's some exciting news:

August 25: Astronomers announce the finding of a planet a mere 14 times the mass of Earth orbiting the star of Mu Arae.

August 31 Some more gas giants.

What I wouldn't give for a two-thousand year lifespan to see what's going to be found...

Apropos of Nothing

Well, sort of. I've been mucking around over at the Fray, toying with some ideas that aren't coherent enough to merit blogging.

Still, the conversation brought to mind William Blake's evocative masterpiece, "The Tiger."


TIGER, tiger, burning bright
In the forests of the night,
What immortal hand or eye
Could frame thy fearful symmetry?

In what distant deeps or skies
Burnt the fire of thine eyes?
On what wings dare he aspire?
What the hand dare seize the fire?

And what shoulder and what art
Could twist the sinews of thy heart?
And when thy heart began to beat,
What dread hand and what dread feet?

What the hammer? what the chain?
In what furnace was thy brain?
What the anvil? What dread grasp
Dare its deadly terrors clasp?

When the stars threw down their spears,
And water'd heaven with their tears,
Did He smile His work to see?
Did He who made the lamb make thee?

Tiger, tiger, burning bright
In the forests of the night,
What immortal hand or eye
Dare frame thy fearful symmetry?

Monday, August 30, 2004

Blame Big Tobacco

The following was just brought to my attention:
Frustrated chimp takes up smoking

Mildly Amusing

Pleasure Boat Captains for Truth

The Truman Doctrine

Now more than ever, the orginial also bears reading in full:


PRESIDENT HARRY S. TRUMAN'S ADDRESS BEFORE A JOINT SESSION OF CONGRESS, MARCH 12, 1947


Mr. President, Mr. Speaker, Members of the Congress of the United States:

The gravity of the situation which confronts the world today necessitates my appearance before a joint session of the Congress. The foreign policy and the national security of this country are involved.

One aspect of the present situation, which I wish to present to you at this time for your consideration and decision, concerns Greece and Turkey.

The United States has received from the Greek Government an urgent appeal for financial and economic assistance. Preliminary reports from the American Economic Mission now in Greece and reports from the American Ambassador in Greece corroborate the statement of the Greek Government that assistance is imperative if Greece is to survive as a free nation.

I do not believe that the American people and the Congress wish to turn a deaf ear to the appeal of the Greek Government.

Greece is not a rich country. Lack of sufficient natural resources has always forced the Greek people to work hard to make both ends meet. Since 1940, this industrious and peace loving country has suffered invasion, four years of cruel enemy occupation, and bitter internal strife.

When forces of liberation entered Greece they found that the retreating Germans had destroyed virtually all the railways, roads, port facilities, communications, and merchant marine. More than a thousand villages had been burned. Eighty-five per cent of the children were tubercular. Livestock, poultry, and draft animals had almost disappeared. Inflation had wiped out practically all savings.

As a result of these tragic conditions, a militant minority, exploiting human want and misery, was able to create political chaos which, until now, has made economic recovery impossible.

Greece is today without funds to finance the importation of those goods which are essential to bare subsistence. Under these circumstances the people of Greece cannot make progress in solving their problems of reconstruction. Greece is in desperate need of financial and economic assistance to enable it to resume purchases of food, clothing, fuel and seeds. These are indispensable for the subsistence of its people and are obtainable only from abroad. Greece must have help to import the goods necessary to restore internal order and security, so essential for economic and political recovery.

The Greek Government has also asked for the assistance of experienced American administrators, economists and technicians to insure that the financial and other aid given to Greece shall be used effectively in creating a stable and self-sustaining economy and in improving its public administration.

The very existence of the Greek state is today threatened by the terrorist activities of several thousand armed men, led by Communists, who defy the government's authority at a number of points, particularly along the northern boundaries. A Commission appointed by the United Nations security Council is at present investigating disturbed conditions in northern Greece and alleged border violations along the frontier between Greece on the one hand and Albania, Bulgaria, and Yugoslavia on the other.

Meanwhile, the Greek Government is unable to cope with the situation. The Greek army is small and poorly equipped. It needs supplies and equipment if it is to restore the authority of the government throughout Greek territory. Greece must have assistance if it is to become a self-supporting and self-respecting democracy.

The United States must supply that assistance. We have already extended to Greece certain types of relief and economic aid but these are inadequate.

There is no other country to which democratic Greece can turn.

No other nation is willing and able to provide the necessary support for a democratic Greek government.

The British Government, which has been helping Greece, can give no further financial or economic aid after March 31. Great Britain finds itself under the necessity of reducing or liquidating its commitments in several parts of the world, including Greece.

We have considered how the United Nations might assist in this crisis. But the situation is an urgent one requiring immediate action and the United Nations and its related organizations are not in a position to extend help of the kind that is required.

It is important to note that the Greek Government has asked for our aid in utilizing effectively the financial and other assistance we may give to Greece, and in improving its public administration. It is of the utmost importance that we supervise the use of any funds made available to Greece; in such a manner that each dollar spent will count toward making Greece self-supporting, and will help to build an economy in which a healthy democracy can flourish.

No government is perfect. One of the chief virtues of a democracy, however, is that its defects are always visible and under democratic processes can be pointed out and corrected. The Government of Greece is not perfect. Nevertheless it represents eighty-five per cent of the members of the Greek Parliament who were chosen in an election last year. Foreign observers, including 692 Americans, considered this election to be a fair expression of the views of the Greek people.

The Greek Government has been operating in an atmosphere of chaos and extremism. It has made mistakes. The extension of aid by this country does not mean that the United States condones everything that the Greek Government has done or will do. We have condemned in the past, and we condemn now, extremist measures of the right or the left. We have in the past advised tolerance, and we advise tolerance now.

Greece's neighbor, Turkey, also deserves our attention.

The future of Turkey as an independent and economically sound state is clearly no less important to the freedom-loving peoples of the world than the future of Greece. The circumstances in which Turkey finds itself today are considerably different from those of Greece. Turkey has been spared the disasters that have beset Greece. And during the war, the United States and Great Britain furnished Turkey with material aid.

Nevertheless, Turkey now needs our support.

Since the war Turkey has sought financial assistance from Great Britain and the United States for the purpose of effecting that modernization necessary for the maintenance of its national integrity.

That integrity is essential to the preservation of order in the Middle East.

The British government has informed us that, owing to its own difficulties can no longer extend financial or economic aid to Turkey.

As in the case of Greece, if Turkey is to have the assistance it needs, the United States must supply it. We are the only country able to provide that help.

I am fully aware of the broad implications involved if the United States extends assistance to Greece and Turkey, and I shall discuss these implications with you at this time.

One of the primary objectives of the foreign policy of the United States is the creation of conditions in which we and other nations will be able to work out a way of life free from coercion. This was a fundamental issue in the war with Germany and Japan. Our victory was won over countries which sought to impose their will, and their way of life, upon other nations.

To ensure the peaceful development of nations, free from coercion, the United States has taken a leading part in establishing the United Nations, The United Nations is designed to make possible lasting freedom and independence for all its members. We shall not realize our objectives, however, unless we are willing to help free peoples to maintain their free institutions and their national integrity against aggressive movements that seek to impose upon them totalitarian regimes. This is no more than a frank recognition that totalitarian regimes imposed on free peoples, by direct or indirect aggression, undermine the foundations of international peace and hence the security of the United States.

The peoples of a number of countries of the world have recently had totalitarian regimes forced upon them against their will. The Government of the United States has made frequent protests against coercion and intimidation, in violation of the Yalta agreement, in Poland, Rumania, and Bulgaria. I must also state that in a number of other countries there have been similar developments.

At the present moment in world history nearly every nation must choose between alternative ways of life. The choice is too often not a free one.

One way of life is based upon the will of the majority, and is distinguished by free institutions, representative government, free elections, guarantees of individual liberty, freedom of speech and religion, and freedom from political oppression.

The second way of life is based upon the will of a minority forcibly imposed upon the majority. It relies upon terror and oppression, a controlled press and radio; fixed elections, and the suppression of personal freedoms.

I believe that it must be the policy of the United States to support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures.

I believe that we must assist free peoples to work out their own destinies in their own way.

I believe that our help should be primarily through economic and financial aid which is essential to economic stability and orderly political processes.

The world is not static, and the status quo is not sacred. But we cannot allow changes in the status quo in violation of the Charter of the United Nations by such methods as coercion, or by such subterfuges as political infiltration. In helping free and independent nations to maintain their freedom, the United States will be giving effect to the principles of the Charter of the United Nations.

It is necessary only to glance at a map to realize that the survival and integrity of the Greek nation are of grave importance in a much wider situation. If Greece should fall under the control of an armed minority, the effect upon its neighbor, Turkey, would be immediate and serious. Confusion and disorder might well spread throughout the entire Middle East.

Moreover, the disappearance of Greece as an independent state would have a profound effect upon those countries in Europe whose peoples are struggling against great difficulties to maintain their freedoms and their independence while they repair the damages of war.

It would be an unspeakable tragedy if these countries, which have struggled so long against overwhelming odds, should lose that victory for which they sacrificed so much. Collapse of free institutions and loss of independence would be disastrous not only for them but for the world. Discouragement and possibly failure would quickly be the lot of neighboring peoples striving to maintain their freedom and independence.

Should we fail to aid Greece and Turkey in this fateful hour, the effect will be far reaching to the West as well as to the East.

We must take immediate and resolute action.

I therefore ask the Congress to provide authority for assistance to Greece and Turkey in the amount of $400,000,000 for the period ending June 30, 1948. In requesting these funds, I have taken into consideration the maximum amount of relief assistance which would be furnished to Greece out of the $350,000,000 which I recently requested that the Congress authorize for the prevention of starvation and suffering in countries devastated by the war.

In addition to funds, I ask the Congress to authorize the detail of American civilian and military personnel to Greece and Turkey, at the request of those countries, to assist in the tasks of reconstruction, and for the purpose of supervising the use of such financial and material assistance as may be furnished. I recommend that authority also be provided for the instruction and training of selected Greek and Turkish personnel.

Finally, I ask that the Congress provide authority which will permit the speediest and most effective use, in terms of needed commodities, supplies, and equipment, of such funds as may be authorized.

If further funds, or further authority, should be needed for purposes indicated in this message, I shall not hesitate to bring the situation before the Congress. On this subject the Executive and Legislative branches of the Government must work together.

This is a serious course upon which we embark.

I would not recommend it except that the alternative is much more serious. The United States contributed $341,000,000,000 toward winning World War II. This is an investment in world freedom and world peace.

The assistance that I am recommending for Greece and Turkey amounts to little more than 1 tenth of 1 per cent of this investment. It is only common sense that we should safeguard this investment and make sure that it was not in vain.

The seeds of totalitarian regimes are nurtured by misery and want. They spread and grow in the evil soil of poverty and strife. They reach their full growth when the hope of a people for a better life has died. We must keep that hope alive.

The free peoples of the world look to us for support in maintaining their freedoms.

If we falter in our leadership, we may endanger the peace of the world -- and we shall surely endanger the welfare of our own nation.

Great responsibilities have been placed upon us by the swift movement of events.

I am confident that the Congress will face these responsibilities squarely.

A Compelling Explanation of Iraq

I'm still mulling it over... but yesterday, I solicited opinions on the current state of Iraq over at Slate's Fray, which is still haunted on occasion by a lot of really bright people who know how to make you think. The question, as I put it: "Is withdrawal the right thing to do at this point? Why or why not?"

The response, from one "Fritz Gerlich" is so strong, offering a plausible scenario which fits the facts that I'd never quite seen before, and I'd like to share it in full:


It wasn't about threat--


military threat, anyway. That was mere pretext, opportunistically based on September 11. We didn't have to wait until after the invasion to know that. Everything necessary to divest Saddam Hussein of unconventional weapons and to ensure that he didn't and wouldn't help al Qaeda was well in process before March 16, 2003. Yet Bush told the U.N. inspectors to leave Iraq and ordered the invasion, because the phase of the moon was changing and Franks didn't want to wait another month, what with the summer heat coming on. At that point, tactical, not political, considerations drove events. The policy decision to invade Iraq had been made long before. I think the final decision was made shortly after the 2002 midterm elections, when a decisive Republican victory convinced Rove that Bush had a virtually limitless mandate on "terrorism." It was in late November that we first heard about movements of large units and their equipment to Kuwait. But serious planning at all levels had by that time already been in the works for almost two years.

The administration's failure to plan for the occupation is another clue as to its thinking. That there was no significant prewar planning for internal security, basic services, or restoration of Iraqi government (the plans now being, allegedly, carried out were all formed afterward) suggests that the invasion had nothing to do with the interests of the Iraqi people. Those were invoked only as a last-minute moral justification. Instead, we were after something which might be assisted by a stable, friendly Iraqi government but which did not depend upon it.

That "something" was the permanent presence of a large, experienced American force in the Gulf, so that there would never again be any doubt that the United States is the single most powerful player in the region. Global demand for oil will only continue to increase, yet with the peak of the Hubbert curve very near, supplies will not. As is well-known, the Gulf contains by far the largest remaining proven reserves of petroleum on the planet. This administration has no energy plan except to maintain access to dependable supplies of oil.

The plan isn't as crude as simply seizing Iraqi crude. Bush and Cheney aren't thieves, for heaven's sake. It's a matter of maintaining uninterrupted supply at something like reasonable prices. We can lose Venezuelan and Nigerian oil and still function. But if an Islamic revolution were to sweep the Gulf, imposing unfriendly regimes in Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, the United States would be in a truly difficult situation. The deepest intent of the invasion of Iraq was to attempt to head off such a development by demonstrating what was supposed to be an awesome ability to unmake and make governments there. If the revolution occurred anyway, then the backup plan was to have an experienced army in place to keep critical oilfields out of the hands of unfriendly governments.

For these purposes, the minimum the United States must accomplish in Iraq is merely to keep its army in place and able to fight. Stabilizing Iraq politically under a friendly government would be very nice, very helpful--but it isn't crucial. We always have the option of withdrawing our forces to the 13 or 14 bases we've already established--and, indeed, show some signs of doing that already--witness Falluja. A chaotic situation in-country actually helps, insofar as it gives the U.S. a perfect argument for staying ("if we left all hell would break loose"), and with chaos nobody can definitively say that the will of the Iraqi people is for the U.S. to leave. Although we presented Iraqi "sovereignty" as an exercise in morality and legality, its political usefulness was that it created room for us to distance ourselves from the fighting. We can now claim it's an Iraqi problem, not ours (except to the extent we choose to make it ours, on a case-by-case basis).

The worst state of affairs for us would be an unquestionably legitimate, elected government which told the U.S. to get out--for then we really would have fought for no lasting gain. But that is unlikely in the near term, for two reasons. One is simply that orderly national elections are still quite a long way off, as I believe the article you link mentions. The other is that any national government which has a chance of emerging from a fair election and actually getting going any time soon will be totally dependent on American military, economic and technical support. (Local and regional governments are another matter--some of them may well be Islamic and hostile to the Americans.)

Bush can take the political heat of the conflict at its present level. People kvetch, but nobody sees much of an alternative, Kerry isn't providing any leadership, and a death or two every day is relatively easy to get used to. (Note that stories of Americans killed have steadily dropped in prominence over the last three or four months.) If the fighting gets much worse, Bush will quietly order a partial withdrawal to secure bases. And, of course, in a second term he will have a freer hand than he does now--he might even begin to speak openly about what he thinks our occupation of Iraq accomplishes.

There are, of course, other goals also putatively served by the American occupation of Iraq. Supposedly, it makes Israel more secure (although I'm not seeing exactly how--Israel seems to be doing well enough on its own, and is just waiting for Arafat to die). Another is Rumsfeld's transformation of DOD and the military. Rumsfeld has made himself the apostle of new military concepts, and it usually takes a war to make new concepts about fighting stick.

But oil remains what the war is really about--which is true of our whole Middle Eastern policy, and has been for over a quarter of a century. Without lessening our dependence on Persian Gulf oil, no administration could really draw any other conclusion.

Sunday, August 29, 2004

How do you beat this?

The NY Times has a must-read article on its front page today about the situations in Fallujah and Ramadi.


Both of the cities, Falluja and Ramadi, and much of Anbar Province, are now controlled by fundamentalist militias, with American troops confined mainly to heavily protected forts on the desert's edge. ...
In the past three weeks, three former Hussein loyalists appointed to important posts in Falluja and Ramadi have been eliminated by the militants and their Baathist allies. The chief of a battalion of the American-trained Iraqi National Guard in Falluja was beheaded by the militants, prompting the disintegration of guard forces in the city. The Anbar governor was forced to resign after his three sons were kidnapped. The third official, the provincial police chief in Ramadi, was lured to his arrest by American marines after three assassination attempts led him to secretly defect to the rebel cause.

The national guard commander and the governor were both forced into humiliating confessions, denouncing themselves as "traitors" on videotapes that sell in the Falluja marketplace for 50 cents. The tapes show masked men ending the guard commander's halting monologue, toppling him to the ground, and sawing off his head, to the accompaniment of recorded Koranic chants ordaining death for those who "make war upon Allah." The governor is shown with a photograph of himself with an American officer, sobbing as he repents working with the "infidel Americans," then being rewarded with a weeping reunion with his sons.

In another taped sequence available in the Falluja market, a mustached man identifying himself as an Egyptian is shown kneeling in a flowered shirt, confessing that he "worked as a spy for the Americans," planting electronic "chips" used for setting targets in American bombing raids. The man says he was paid $150 for each chip laid, then he, too, is tackled to the ground by masked guards while a third masked man, a burly figure who proclaims himself a dispenser of Islamic justice, pulls a 12-inch knife from a scabbard, grabs the Egyptian by the scalp, and severs his head.


Though every fiber of my being demands that we should stop these people from establishing a new tyranny in the state of Iraq... I don't see how we could. At least, not without regressing towards a method of military occupation that our nation has long since abandoned.

We're not fighting an army here. We're fighting an organization that has become enmeshed with the very society of the places its taken control over. I don't see how you can "root that out" without a great deal of savagery.

And at this stage, we're fighting and dying for what, exactly? Allawi's regime?

Oh, right... "democracy." Just not the fully representative kind...

After five hours of wrangling over who would get the 81 available seats in the assembly, delegates today seemed to agree on a list. The 81 were predominantly from large political parties, including those affiliated with Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's governing party, religious Shiite and Sunni groups, as well as Kurds.

But a large number of delegates — mostly from the small independent parties — said they had been shut out of the process and withdrew their candidacies in protest.

"Today the interim national congress has been formed," said Fuad Masum, the head of the national conference. "The process was legal."

Delegates poured out of the large auditorium at about 9 p.m. Some spoke angrily about the voting process, which they said had been manipulated by larger, more powerful parties. Others were jubiliant and hundreds lined up on the first floor of the convention to receive per diem financial allotments from the conference organizers.


This war's a disaster. I was opposed to it from the beginning as it seemed a foolish waste of America's strength in a critical time, pursuing phantom menaces. But once we took Baghdad, I supported it on two simple grounds. Morally, America shouldn't destroy countries without also repairing the damage created in its wake. Strategically, one of the worst things you can do for American national security is lose a war. Before the Bush Administration, America enjoyed the most fearsome military machine in the world. Unfortunately, every regime in the world now knows the effective limitations of that power, and I see no reason why our enemies (or the enemies of those we would protect) will not now provoke us in ways that anticipate those limits.

It seems to me that the most just (though diplomatically difficult) response to the present situation is to carve Iraq into separate states... at the very least untethering the still democratic and secularist Kurds from the monster we're creating in the south... and to focus our military's actions on guaranteeing the territorial integrity of Kurdistan.

It's a boy!

I'm already the proud uncle to two lovely nieces. As of around 11:30 this morning, I now have a nephew in the family! Blogging may be light in the week of Labor Day, as I will be travelling to pay my respects to the newcomer.

Friday, August 27, 2004

Synthetoric!TM

Have you caught yourself thinking that all the discussion of this Swift Boat crap is beginning to bleed together? Having trouble making out the words behind the echoing reverberations of outrage and scandal? Well, for one time only, I'm going to make it all clearer for you. I have distilled this week's columns by Ann Coulter, Bill Bennett, Thomas Sowell, Patrick Buchanan, Christopher Hitchens, Bob Novak, and David Brooks into a single handy column!

Restoring "Swift" to the Controversy



I'm launching a major investigation into whether the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth organization is being secretly financed by the Kerry campaign.* If Kerry doesn't like people disputing his own version of his own gallantry, then it was highly incautious of him to have made it the centerpiece of his appeal.*

For starters, 254 swiftboat veterans say Kerry is a fraud; 14 say he's a hero. Partisan considerations aside, which would be more difficult to do: Get 14 liars to keep a secret, or get 254 liars to do so?* John Kerry actually claims to have shot a fleeing Viet Cong soldier from the riverbank, something that I personally would have kept very quiet about.* Kerry nicked himself with a M-79 [grenade launcher].* But it is the contention of O'Neill and Gardner that Kerry bears responsibility for the boy's death.*

While Democrats argue that Republicans and President Bush are "smearing" Senator Kerry we ask two questions: a) What has President Bush said that he should apologize for? and b) What have Republicans said that comes anywhere close to the following:*

  • When John O'Neill, author of "Unfit for Command," went on "Hardball," Matthews accused O'Neill of being a Republican operative and demanded that O'Neill detail for "Hardball's" six remaining viewers his voting history for the past 20 years in mind-numbing detail.*
  • In a March 22, 2004 interview with Britain's The Independent, former President Jimmy Carter savaged President Bush and Prime Minister Blair. The war to liberate Iraq was, according to Mr. Carter, based on "lies and misinterpretations from London to Washington."*
  • Senator Kerry has argued for a more "nuanced" approach to foreign policy and a more "sensitive" way of fighting international terrorism.*
  • Kerry supporters said no critics of the Democratic presidential nominee ever were aboard a boat with him in combat.*
  • When Bush went ahead and outlined a plan along those lines, Kerry blasted the president, saying it was reckless to embrace the idea he had endorsed two weeks before.*
  • Surely the contempt the swiftboat veterans have for Kerry is in part due to his slandering them as war criminals before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.*
  • They have also implicitly subverted one of the most important principles of the republic, which is civilian control over military decisions. And more than that, they have done something eye-rubbingly unprincipled, doing what Reagan and Kissinger could not do: rehabilitating the notion of the Vietnam horror as "a noble cause." *


I have no idea whether John Kerry is or is not telling the unvarnished truth about his service in Vietnam.* We will probably never know exactly what happened that night.* All this is odd for a person who is such a child of the 1960's. "Authenticity" was such a big concept then. Nobody would accuse the current John Kerry of that.* There are of course gray areas. But not all areas are gray. And not all 24 hours of the day are twilight.*

There are several methods of evaluating the claims of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, 254 of whom have signed a letter saying John Kerry is not fit to be commander in chief.* Kerry should be asked whether he wrote a report saying five VC were killed and two captured, when Steve Gardner, the man who fired the guns, says one man was blown overboard, one child was killed, and only a baby and its terrified mother were taken into custody.* In what sense, in other words, does his participation in a shameful war qualify him to be president of the United States?* A President of the United States should know all sides of an issue. But he cannot be on all sides of an issue. He cannot keep flip-flopping like John Kerry.* Why don't we just give both sides some swiftboats, a few machine guns and lots of ammo, put them on a river somewhere, and let them settle this whole thing like gentlemen once and for all?*




Ann Coulter
Bill Bennett
Thomas Sowell
Patrick Buchanan
Christopher Hitchens
Bob Novak
David Brooks

The Blogger's Verse

I came across this passage from Auden's Letter to Lord Byron on my lunch break a short while ago. Thought it kind of summed up the blogger's urge rather nicely:


I want a form that's large enough to swim in,
And talk on any subject that I choose,
From natural scenery to men and women,
Myself, the arts, the European news:
And since she's on a holiday, my Muse
Is out to please, find everything delightful
And only now and then be mildly spiteful

Friday Horse Race

It's been a good week for Bush, as all indicators seem to indicate movement in his direction. I'm still optimistic that it's a pre-convention rush. My guess is that there will be a cascade of support for Kerry in October that will reinvent these maps. But in the meantime, the data pretty much contradicts such a hope.

So, let's begin with Tradesports. George Bush continues to gain favor in the Tradesports exchange. His election index, the price of a single contract for Bush in each state, has continued to show gains, mostly based upon a broad shallow boost across most states, rather than dramatic gains in any one state or region. The index's value now stands at 2887, which is nearly a fifty point gain over its lifetime low of two weeks ago. If each state were to deliver its votes in proportion to the odds (i.e., a state with a 98% chance of backing Bush were to deliver 98% of its votes), Kerry would win the popular vote by 54.7 million to 50.6 million, which is a margin of 4.1 million votes (+3.9%).

Major movements since last week:


  • Weak Kerry to Strong Kerry - Iowa (39.9%), Michigan
  • Weak Kerry to Weak Bush - Wisconsin (50.6%)
  • Weak Bush to Strong Bush - Arkansas (63%),


Odds


Bush: Strong - 206; Weak - 78; Total - 274
Kerry: Strong - 254; Weak - 0; Total - 254



Meanwhile, in the polls, the race is continuing to get more complex. The overall trendline lately has been markedly in Bush's favor, but the map itself appears to be showing far more states in play than before. My guess is that this signifies a softening of certainty as the election draws near, rather than a gain for either candidate. But we'll see...

Anyhow, if each candidate were to receive votes in each state based upon their current averaged poll results, Kerry would win the popular vote by 48 million to 47.5 million which is a leading margin of +0.62%.

Major movers:

  • Weak Kerry to Strong Kerry - New Mexico (+5%)
  • Weak Kerry to Tied - Wisconsin
  • Strong Kerry to Weak Kerry - Michigan (+4%), Pennsylvania (+3%)
  • Weak Kerry to Weak Bush - West Virginia (+2%), Florida (+1%)


Polls

Bush: Strong - 178; Weak - 96; Total - 274
Kerry: Strong - 202; Weak - 49; Total - 251
Tied + Delaware: 13



Thursday, August 26, 2004

Michelle Cottle is wrong

She takes Dick Cheney to task in this article at The New Republic for his stance in support of gay marriage. The gist of her argument is that in this one case, Cheney bucks the party line, not out of anything approaching compassion, conviction, or reason, but out of a mere opportunistic desire to advance the interests of his family and compatriots. As Cottle sees it:


I understand that all politics are personal. But are we really supposed to applaud a man who strays from his pinched ideological worldview only when it serves to benefit himself or someone in his circle of intimates? That's not compassionate conservativism; that's political cronyism (or, in Mary's case, nepotism).

The flaw with this argument, of course, is it discounts the very real opportunity available to conservative politicians with lesbian family members - which is to maintain your opposition to gay rights in general.

It also, of course, discounts the other very real possibility open to parents of gay children. According to LAMBDA, 42% of homeless teens report being gay. Though far less common than in the past, expulsion from home is still one of the leading factors in teenage homelessness.

It's not uncommon for people to hold noxious beliefs about gays. It's also not uncommon for those people to maintain those beliefs, even when someone they know or love turns out to be gay themselves. It's also not uncommon, even among those who change their minds, for them to keep the issue as quiet and private as possible.

Faced with a gay daughter, Cheney appears to have given her love and support. He's publicly acknowledged her, both as a gay person and as a member of her family. And more importantly, his support for his daughter has caused him to publicly acknowledge the rightness of gay marriage for all gays.

It may be a parochial position, reasoned from the basis of personal experience. But it is nevertheless a righteous position. And, to the extent that Cheney's beliefs are the opposite of political opportunism (supporting gay marriage isn't exactly a political asset in the power circles of the conservative right), his support should be recognized as politically courageous.

To denounce him on this issue for no other reason than his general noxiousness is counterproductive and wrong.

In this case, Cheney's right. It is right to acknowledge that, and to hope that his words might change some minds which are closed to the pleas of more traditional spokesmen.

Hours of Entertainment...

OK, well maybe minutes. But check out the "Build Your Own Bush"

http://funny.ansme.com/politics/bush/build.html

Wednesday, August 25, 2004

Revisiting an old discussion

Readers J and Bret have written in with great responses to a "distant" thread, responding to my distinction between "value" and "efficiency" in agricultural methods.

The dispute arises over the particulars of our shared disdain for billions upon billions of dollars lavished upon subsidies to first-world agriculture. Specifically, I contend that large-scale agriculture is more "efficient" without regard to the relative value of man-hours than most other forms of agriculture, though less "valuable"; whereas J and Bret both offer solid arguments that the hidden costs of agriculture's myriad externalities actually render the system far less efficient than small-scale and/or organic agriculture.

The short definition for efficiency in this context is "ratio of inputs to outputs." The lower this ratio in practice, the more "efficient" the method. Bret sees the difference arising from different perspectives of analysis - single-actor vs. total-resource. J argues that I ascribe too much efficiency to mass farming practices by restricting my consideration to the mere labor input of the cycle.

I would, however, argue that the crucial distinction is really hidden in different understandings of what constitutes a "benefit" or a "cost" and the ensuing metric of "value." "Efficiency" in the context of human endeavors cannot be efficiently evaluated without paying close attention to estimated (or esteemed) values of relative inputs and outputs.

Consider, if you will, the theoretical underpinnings of Holistic Range Management (HRM), a pasteurage theory which was receiving a trial hearing in the Eastern Sierras during my brief sojourn there from 1995-97.

HRM was devised as a response to an observed environmental problem associated with pasturage in the Midwest. After a few years of pasturage, cow fields would become choked and overgrown with large, wicked weeds which were well-nigh impossible to forage. Enviromentalists compared this to the discovered state of the plains, which often held more buffalo per acre than modern cow pastures, but maintained their pristine prairie grasses for centuries. What was the difference?

The theory behind Holistic Range Management was that cows were practing a simple method of caloric efficiency with detrimental long-term effects. Basically, given a single cow with a choice of foods, each cow seems to choose the most calorically rewarding foodstuff. So, let's say I have a field with alfalfa, crabgrass, and dandelions. Now, my cow is, whenever possible, going to choose the alfalfa over the crabgrass and the crabgrass over the dandelions, because at every stage of development the alfalfa is comparatively more lucrative. Because of this, the alfalfa will fare especially poorly against the dandelions, because, by the time the alfalfa is so scarce it's not worth foraging, the dandelions will generally be older, tougher, and even less nutritious than they were as shoots.

But, let's say you unleash an environmentally unsustainable horde upon your virgin pasture all at once. More cows means much more competition, and thus, your cows will fight over every last plant, ravaging the young alfalfa shoots and the young dandelion shoots in effectively equal measure. According to HRM theory, if you divide your pastures into smaller lots, increase the concentration of your cows, but leave each segment of pasture fallow for a longer period (I think 5 years was the recommended practice), you would allegedly mitigate the environmental impact of your pasturage.

So, is the cow's quest to maximize short-term caloric intake at the expense of it's long-term caloric intake efficient? In meeting the cow's immediate-to-hand agenda, the answer is an obvious "yes." And, in fact, its "environmental rape" method of grazing is even sustainable in an unconstrained environment. Like the buffalo of yore, a herd could move into a territory, decimate everything, then move on to greener pastures, leaving the freshly-fertilized region to its balanced recovery.

Similarly, the undernoted (though perhaps not underrated) anthropologist Marvin Harris observed a similar pattern to the practice of human agriculture. According to the narrative weaved from Harris' observation, human technological advance is primarily an adaptive environmental response which compensates for diminishing caloric returns from any given practice.

As Harris observes, there is no evidence of agriculture from the "Big Game Hunter" period of the Upper Paleolithic, despite ample evidence of massive communities in various Ukrainian steppe towns. With the depletion of big-game stocks from human overhunting, a move is witnessed to the processing and consumption of various grains (the earliest evidence of barley-porridge making was previously taken to be 12,000 years old, though recent evidence suggests grains may have been consumed as distantly as 23,000 years ago). At some point, human population stocks appear to have outpaced the available forage supply, and we begin to see the emergence of agricultural civilizations along the world's riverine basins. Strangely, the rise of agriculture also seems correlated with the dessication of many of the world's most fertile river basins, and Harris postulates that thousands of years of intensive cultivation likely denuded many watersheds, necessitating the development of irrigation. Irrigation led to soil salination, led to ever-greater levels of complexity in human engineering and social structure... presumably marching inevitably down a path of caloric harmonization that leads to today's world of remote farm country and interstate highways.

As Harris sees it, technological innovation can basically be predicted by monitoring the caloric rate of return of any given food-harvesting practice. As any new method of harvest is adopted, it initially yields a far higher return upon investment than the latter stages of the preceding method. Gradually, over a span of centuries, or millenia, the practice yield ever-diminishing returns. At a critical threshold point, we seem to find moments of great historical upheaval followed by the adaptation and adoption of new methods which temporarily boost caloric return.

Now, from a long-term perspective, would such a system be considered "efficient" or "inefficient?"

I can't say.

Which is why, I think efficiency needs to be considered apart from value. J would argue that the cost of gas and other various externals ultimately outweighs the benefits of conserved labor. I'd argue that's not the case. Given the cheapness of oil in the contemporary world, I don't think it's a sustainable argument that petroleum products actually outweigh human labor on the scale of human value. A gallon of gasoline for a tractor is worth far less than an hour of federal mandatory-minimum wage time.

A farmer is seeking a determinate outcome ("enough" return on his crop yield) based upon determinate inputs. Generally speaking, the cost of human labor will, in the long-term, far exceed almost every other affiliated cost of business. Meanwhile, the farmer's goal is not to produce a maximally valuable crop-yield, but one which will provide an adequate return on his investments of time and resources.

In this equation, the goal of environmental preservation should be seen as one of intangible benefit... in the category of such dreams as social equality or full employment... not in the hard world of efficiency-impacting inputs and outputs. The farmer, or any other human actor for that matter, need not see any personal virtue in environmental preservation. In many cases, they do not. However, in the case of organic farming, say, farmers are rewarded for certain stewardship practices by those who place a premium upon such efforts. In their case, the reward is often greater profits on smaller yields (though, again, J disputes the notion that organic yields are smaller than mass-agriculture).

Evaluating the efficiency of a practice must be done within the "event horizon" of human perspective, whether done through a "total resource analysis" or a "single actor resource analysis." From either perspective, the potential costs of "long-term damage" are ultimately indeterminate. It's not clear what constitutes environmental degradation, nor is it clear that such damage per se is an actual long-term detriment. All past evidence of human nature, in fact, seems to indicate that men adapt both their practices and their standards to the environment in which they find themselves.

What is clear is that many of us have a notion of how we would like our environment to appear which, like most social goals, is often held abstractly... i.e., we value Amazonian rainforest for the principles it embodies rather than our own direct experience of it. I think there are potential new markets catering to new definitions of "value." I think it is naive to cloak such values in the economic rhetoric of efficiency. They have no natural place there, and it strains credulity to argue that they do.

Tangentially from Tangiers...

Just a quick biographical sketch from an online Encyclopedia of the biography of Muhammad ibn Abdallah ibn Tumart, the founder of the Almohad dynasty, and an interesting case study in the historical potential of a single well-educated zealot:


Ibn Tumart was the son of a lamplighter in a mosque and had been noted for his piety from his youth; he was small, ugly, and misshapen and lived the life of a devotee-beggar.

As a youth he performed the pilgrimage to Mecca (or "Makkah"), whence he was expelled on account of his severe strictures on the laxity of others, and thence wandered to Bagdad, where he attached himself to the school of the orthodox doctor al Ashari. But he made a system of his own by combining the teaching of his master with parts of the doctrines of others, and with mysticism imbibed from the great teacher Ghazali. His main principle was a rigid unitarianism which denied the independent existence of the attributes of God, as being incompatible with his unity, and therefore a polytheistic idea. Muhammad in fact represented a revolt against the anthropomorphism of commonplace Muslim orthodoxy, but he was a rigid predestinarian and a strict observer of the law. After his return to Morocco at the age of twenty-eight, he began preaching and agitating, heading riotous attacks on wine-shops and on other manifestations of laxity. He even went so far as to assault the sister of the Murabit (Almoravide) amir `Ali III, in the streets of Fez, because she was going about unveiled after the manner of Berber women. `Ali, who was very deferential to any exhibition of piety, allowed him to escape unpunished.

Ibn Tumart, who had been driven from several other towns for exhibitions of reforming zeal, now took refuge among his own people, the Masmuda, in the Atlas. It is highly probable that his influence would not have outlived him, if he had not found a lieutenant in 'Abd-el-Mumin el Kumi, another Berber, from Algeria, who was undoubtedly a soldier and statesman of a high order. When Ibn Tumart died in 1128 at the monastery or ribat which he had founded in the Atlas at Tinmal, after suffering a severe defeat by the Murabtis, 'Abd-el-Mumin kept his death secret for two years, till his own influence was established. He then came forward as the lieutenant of the Mahdi Ibn Tumart. Between 1130 and his death in 1163, 'Abd-el-Mumin not only rooted out the Murabits, but extended his power over all northern Africa as far as Egypt, becoming amir of Morocco in 1149. Muslim Spain followed the fate of Africa, and in 1170 the Muwahhids transferred their capital to Seville, a step followed by the founding of the great mosque, now superseded by the cathedral, the tower of which they erected in 1184 to mark the accession of Ya`kub el Mansur.


So, let's see here. A movement of puritanical religious zealots start attacking Muslim liquor stores and unveiled women, attracting both notice and retribution from the powers that be. Within a generation, a man whose claim to fame was as a disciple of an ugly, violent zealot afforded enough legitimacy to sweep away the established dynasties of multiple neighboring kingdoms. That's an awful lot of authority resting on the hunched back of a single pious gnome...

I'm both afraid and fascinated to learn what the historical significance of Osama Bin Laden's movement will be. My guess is that the "final" outcome would shock even the most careful-minded of us forward-looking contemporaries...

Game Review - "Medieval Total War"

You wouldn't pick it up from the regular content of this blog, but I happen to be one of those geeky gaming enthusiasts. Though I have a certain talent at, and respect for, arcade games of the action genre, my true love has always been for strategy gaming. And lately, I've been blissing out on the already somewhat dated (but I've never been a newness fetishist) computer game "Medieval Total War."

When I was a child, we had a board game called "Afrika Korps" which was one of those hex-mapped unit-based games where little chips were used to represent various units. I took an inordinate pleasure in setting up the board in its initial configuration, with all the little pink and blue chips representing the German and allied forces arrayed throughout North Africa during 1942. It was meant to be two-player, but I used to play it by myself - hatching up counter-historical hypotheticals, then playing them out to see what would happen. "What if Rommel had done this? What if Eisenhower had done that?" I'm not sure that I'd describe the activity as "fun", but it gratified an imaginative craving that I've always had. Growing up poor in a huge family, the only travel available was the kind you did in your head, and such games allowed a latitude of imaginative movement that books could hardly provide.

As I aged, this interest gradually bifurcated. I developed an interest in multi-player competitive strategy games, like Risk or Axis and Allies. Such games are fun, but often, just like chess, hinge far more on understanding the personalities and inclinations of your fellow players than on abstract strategic questions. But I had a parallel passion for the more solitary endeavors of computer-based single-player strategy sims, like the old Ancient Art of War, and most especially the redoubtable Universal Military Simulator (UMS) - a completely ungilded attempt to painstakingly recreate the conditions of actual historical battles from equipment differentials to terrain effects.

Most such games tended to suffer from a schism between strategic and tactical components. Empire was an early apotheosis of the computer strategy game, but had no tactical component to speak of. UMS, a purely tactical game, was followed by UMS II, which tried to incorporate a global strategic element, and failed miserably. Guns and Butter was an intriguing game focused on strategy, but like most such games, it really only demanded a good understanding of the formulae which drove its resolution system, making it more of an exercise in mathematics than strategy. The Ancient Art of War was an early attempt to integrate strategy with tactics. There were several types of units which you could group and move around a map, and conflicts were resolved in a separate system pitting the individual soldiers of the unit against one another. It was promising, but ultimately suffered greatly from the technical limitations of older PC's (I used to play it on a CGA-monitor, with a computer that had nothing more than two 5 1/4" floppy drives). As long as we're on the subject of old games integrating strategy with tactics, I think an honorable shout-out is owed to the game of Archon for the Commodore 64. If you remember, it was a chess-board game of the forces of light vs. dark. When two pieces contested a square, an arcade battle would ensue between the pieces, with forces getting a bonus for battles on their color (and a large number of squares shifting color throughout the game). Several years later, a version would be released for the PC that sucked dead cow balls. But the original remains unrivalled for fun and playability, especially as a multiplayer game combining a strategic and arcade element.

During the EGA and early VGA period there were three games which really ascended to the superlative stratosphere.

The first of these was exclusively strategic and is probably familiar to most. Sid Meier's infamous Civilization. It was a 2-d representation of the advance of civilization that was, quite frankly, incredible. Its popularity was great enough that it spurred an entire genre of explicit derivative games. Its sequel, Civilization II, is universally better esteemed than the original, which is probably fair, but misses several deteriorations in quality that the underlying game conceit took during the upgrade. I still play Civ II, but I'd happily pare out many of the more retarded branches of the technology tree which make the game so precariously balanced. In the original, mobile unit technology never really advanced between the development of the Chariot and the development of the tank. In the sequel, this was wisely changed, but overdone... producing such distractingly particular units (and functionally useless) as "the Elephant" and "Alpine Troops." Government types received a much-needed revamp, but the addition of "Fundamentalism" proved a drag on the gameplay, as computer players would freeze their advancement and swarm the globe with massive armies of cost-free low-tech units. The original had a solid A.I. and kept a strong focus on truly major advances in human life. The second was overladen with gee-whiz features and actually has a weaker A.I. system (not to mention a map designer that universally generates weird spaghetti continents). It's great strength over the original, though, is in its incredibly flexible scenario editor, and the multitude of excellent scenario pieces which were developed by the game's designers and aficionados. It's great weakness were the expansion packs like "Call to Power" which only laded down the already creaking core gameplay with more stupid and unbalancing conceits. The only real rationale behind Civ II was to justify through change an upgrade of the excellent original meant to harness the greater capabilities of computers. In many ways, the sci-fi follow on to Civilization II, Alpha Centauri represents the more perfect fulfillment of the promise of Civ II, as it actually jettisoned a lot of the sillier aspects of game play and provided a beautiful milieu with an imaginative sci-fi technology tree.

The second noteworthy game of that period was one which never, to my mind, received its due share of credit. The game was known as Command HQ and was actually a pretty decent integration of strategic and tactical elements within a unified and real-time game interface. Players could go head-to-head in a battle of world domination using infantry, armor, air, and naval units. The map was a two-D grid of squares (EGA compatible!) with each unit occupying one square, and extending a "zone of control" into the surrounding eight. When units overlapped in their zones of control, combat would ensue. Units were produced in cities, which also generated income. In order to move around the map, they required oil. The need for oil and income necessitated conflict over cities and oil-producing regions, and the game led to really fun re-enactments of World Wars I & II, in addition to three theoretical future wars... WWIII between Russia and the West and two set in the distant future with randomly created diplomatic starting conditions. The tactical component of the game lay in understanding the nature of zone of control and the relative capacities of various units. By massing units and moving them in coordinate offensives, and most importantly, withdrawing depleted units behind your lines before they could be destroyed, the game provided a great reward to a player with tactical acumen. The computer A.I., unfortuately, was terrible. However, the game could be played directly over the modem, and I experienced many a trouncing at the hands of expert players. Despite its primitive tech, the game remains well-paced, enjoyable, and easy to use, and I still play it on occasion. Tragically, it has never been upgraded to accomodate today's super-baud modems, let alone internet cables, so multiplayer is virtually impossible (believe me, I've tried... though probably a direct serial connection would still work).

The last great mention of this period was Caesar II, a really enjoyable hybrid game advancing the Ancient Art of War integration of battlefield tactics with strategic play. In the game, you represented a Roman provincial governor, moving up through progressively more difficult provincial administrations in a rivalry with another governor. One component of the game was a sort of "Sim City: Rome" in which you built a capital city building by building, trying to ensure that residential neighborhoods were served by the municipal water supply and patrolled by the town guard. Another component was provincial administration, as you tried to develop industries and remote garrisons throughout your province, and to fend off rebellions, incursions and invasions. The third component was a tactical battle in which armies faced off against one another as an array of units. Commands were given on the unit level, and as the units clashed, the individual fighters of the unit would take one another on. It had a wonderful variety of units reflecting a variety of historical troop types and was really a superlative game. Unfortunately, Caesar III aborted this whole line of development, focusing exclusively on the "SimCity" component of the game, and eliminating both the provincial map and the excellent battle feature (which now took place within the simulated city environment). Caesar III was a travesty of technology against the excellent core gameplay of Caesar II and an abandonment of the line of game development that Caesar II epitomized.

As the years passed, excellent developments have come out in both strategic and tactical games. The excellent WarCraft and StarCraft series (and their surprisingly dull counterpart, Age of Empire) are both often misportrayed as "strategy" games. In fact, both are almost exclusively tactical. Both games have a logistical component in resource-gathering and building-construction, but such aspects of the game are really only the material preconditions used to determine your army's size and composition. For the most part, the game hinges almost entirely on one's ability to successfully command several units with multiple specialized capacities in a real-time action environment. The games are great fun, enormously satisfying, and come with excellent campaign-mode features. But, in the end, they're incredibly mentally engaging arcade games. They will forever hold my gratitude for finally bringing into balance the technical ambitions of 3-d capable graphics with enjoyable game play. As far as I can tell, these games were the first truly enjoyable 3-d action games that weren't based upon the flight-simulator branch of the family tree (from the old vector-lined topographies of F1: Flight Simulator and the sci-fi classic Elite through the successful Wing Commander series and on into the more terrestrial "first-person-shooter" genre with its many hits (Duke Nukem 3d, Half-Life) and misses (Quake, Doom, original Castle Wolfenstein) (fighting games didn't produce much of note between the passable Mortal Kombat series until Soul Calibur II, which still trumps its successor)).

One side-genre that bears mentioning at this point is the "builder-games." The archetype, and grand-daddy of this game tradition would be the infamous SimCity, which I've already mentioned tangentially several times. As anyone with a passing awareness of games knows, this gradually spawned a whole host of derivatives, from the forgettable SimAnts to the strangely captivating Sims, which entrances several people I know. An early rival in the genre, though, was game known as Populous, in which the player was a deity vying for influence among mortals with a rival in a battle spanning hundreds of worlds. On the game map, human figures would carry out their lives, while you would shape their development with various forms of divine intercession. Kind of like the movie Highlander, it was one of those things where the conceit far outclassed its instantiation. Though intriguing, it simply wasn't very entertaining. However, this conceit reached its own archetypal fulfillment in Tropico, an excellent game in which you rule a small Caribbean island as the dictator. Remarkably detailed individuals with names, families, political allegiances, leadership traits, occupations and homes live out their lives on the island while you direct the economic and political development of the island. You must struggle to develop your island while retaining control over the populace, and the game often throws competition at you in pleasingly organic ways... you begin to recognize dissident intellectuals, for example, who seem to be constantly undermining public order... and sometimes face the temptation to have them shot, imprisoned, or otherwise harassed to keep them under control... through its fusion of immaculate detail with an entrancing gameplay system and interface, it's truly a success of immersive fiction gameplay.

Medieval Total War is another hybrid game which successfully ties together several components from these various lines of development. The "campaign level" occurs like a classic board game, with a beautifully illustrated map of feudal Europe divided into historical medieval provinces. The game spans the centuries from 1088 to 1453 and draws upon a wealth of historical details. It begins with 12 (playable) major factions and several minor factions. On this board, units and castles are reprsented as "tokens." There are military units (of astonishing detail and variety) and diplomatic units (various prelates, royal figures, emissaries, assassins, etc.). Production is handled at the provincial level, developing structures which allow one to produce various units, items, or resources. Much like Tropico, the game actually tracks the personalities and personal attributes of individual persons, most especially the nobles who command your various units, though even the combat histories of individual unit members. Combat is resolved in a system which is an excellent refinement of the old battle gameplay from Caesar II. Soldiers are individually rendered and fight one another in individual melee, based upon fastidious integration of personal attributes, equipment differential, terrain and weather effects, etc. Commands are given at the unit level, with a lag between the delivery of an order and its receipt. The battles unfurl in real-time and pleasingly watch like little digitized movies (if I were a stoner (God forbid!), I'd recommend playing while high).

The game is enormously detailed. You build sea units which can be used to develop trade routes between provinces. With so many factions in contention, you are forced to juggle the various competing rivalries of neighbors and distant rivals. Your king is an actual person, who ages, marries, sires offspring, and eventually dies. Major historical events are noted and sometimes impact events within the game. In addition to one's expansionist objectives, you have to monitor the religious composition of your province, fend off insurrections and pretenders to the throne, pay attention to the marital status of your sons and daughters, balance the desire for territorial gain with the dividends of peaceful trade.

In short, it's a game geek's wet dream. Unfortunately, it's so complicated that it's neither easy to play nor fast-moving. Inattentiveness to one element of gameplay can have disastrous consequences. But in its size, detail, and even its slowness it evokes that same loving historicism of those old chit-based boardgames like Afrika Korps. I've found that the most one can reasonably hope to play in a single sitting is the reign of a single king. Though this is definitely a mark against it by the standards of "fun-based gameplay" it actually is great from the perspective of "historical reconstructionist gameplay" as the death of one king and the rise of his son or brother (or other contender) usually leads to a dramatic shift in focus and priorities, as the new prince enters the scene without the benefit of the old ruler's allegiances and personal attributes.

What it ends up yielding, after great investment of time and energy, is a rich and detailed portrait of a contra-factual history. What if the Danes had focused on extending influence into the heartland of Germany rather than predating upon the West European coastline? Well, in my gamed experience, their early fearsome Viking soldiery would get trounced by Austrian cavalry in the open terrain of Central Europe, leaving them seriously trailing their historical counterparts within a few generations. What if the Spanish had reconquered Granada in 1122? What if the Crusades had managed to maintain a viable Christian kingdom in Outremer? What if the Turks had advanced beyond the mountains of Kosovo or the Almohads had swept past the Pyrenees into the Loire? I'm not saying that this game provides anything remotely approaching "true" answers... but it definitely provides intriguing hypothetical scenarios that are great fodder for those inclined to cheap historical imagination.

I'd be hesitant to "recommend" this game to anyone. But if you have that special taste, I think you'd find it richly rewarding. It does have a pretty clunky UI at times, but on the whole I'd call it a roaring success.

A Book Preview

I can't say much about it, considering it's still at the printer's. But you can advance order it. I think some of my readers (word!) might be especially interested in this one.

Tuesday, August 24, 2004

The LA Times nails it

I have a lot of respect for Bob Dole, but I have to admit that his comments on the Swift Boat controversy have diminished it somewhat.

This editorial hits the absurdity of Dole's role in the flap dead-on:


John Kerry "never bled," and his wounds in Vietnam were only "superficial," Dole declared Sunday on CNN's "Late Edition." Not good enough! You call those wounds? Why lemme tell you, young fella….

So give this round to the GOP. Next, the Democrats can be represented by former Sen. Max Cleland of Georgia, who lost three limbs in Vietnam, and lost a Senate race to a Republican who questioned his patriotism.

Two parties can play this game. But who on Earth would want to?

I would say that the snark is absolutely the right tone for a "respectable" news organization covering this flap. The whole controversy is ridiculous beyond measure, and I will confess that the ginger treatment these guys are getting from the press leaves me furious. To treat their allegations, which directly contradict both eyewitness accounts and all the documentary evidence contemporary to the charge, with even a modicum of respect dishonors the American military and impugns the entire system by which this nation bestows honor and respect upon those who serve it under arms.

The whole controversy is a disgusting sight and it makes me sick.

Also on Elections Voting

I've been reading this article on electronic voting, which superbly exemplifies Salon's tradition of mediocre journalism. Day-pass may be required to read it.

Here is a truly asinine comment:


There is something of an inconsistency to what Dill says, however. On the one hand, he's insisting that elections can't be trusted unless they're conducted on equipment that produces some kind of verifiable paper trail. At the same time, he's telling voters that they should probably go ahead and vote on machines that don't produce such a trail, machines that he says can't be trusted. Now, most people will probably disregard this inconsistency and, even if they agree with Dill that the machines are flawed, they'll still go ahead and vote. As Dill says, this year's election is far too important to miss out on.

Now, the statement seems to rebut itself, but to "earn my keep" I'll just point out the obvious.

In order for the two hands to be "inconsistent" there must be some kind of inherent contradiction. However, Dill (a computer scientist and critic of electronic systems without verifying paper-trails) comes across with as a man with one simple and coherent point: Electronic systems without some form of manual verification are inherently insecure. His only reason for making this point is that such systems are in use by 29% of the American electorate. Now, his first conclusion derived from this argument is that new machines should be installed or existing machines modified. However, it does not follow from this point that one shouldn't vote using the only equipment available because it may not be fully secure.

Now there are a lot of folks who are a long way from logicians... but even still... unless you know in advance that an election has been rigged, there is no more nor less reason not to vote than before. There may be an incentive to vote absentee if you think it a more secure method. But there have always been better and worse voting technologies available, and never before have I heard people argue that because one kind of voting technology was less reliable than another that voters should choose not to vote, rather than use the only (flawed) technology available. Dill's idea is to improve the technology we use. That hardly makes his position that people should still vote "inconsistent."

As long as we're at it, I'd like to give the following line from the article an award for Most Clueless Deployment of a Word with Multiple Senses:

Still, two years after witnessing that Florida debacle, Rodriguez-Taseff, who founded and now heads the Miami-Dade Reform Coalition, a nonpartisan citizen's group dedicated to fixing elections in a county where elections seem eternally unfixable, remains deeply worried about the electronic systems that will be used at her polls this year.

Freaky Reading

Maybe it's because I have a tiny bit of familiarity with some of this field... but these guys sound like amateurs. Access databases?

Friday, August 20, 2004

Source Uncertain

Found this article at www.specialforces.com. The author is "Lieutenant Colonel Robert L. Turkoly-Joczik, Ph.D. (USA, Retired)" and the purpose of his article is:


Of the many military activities reported during the Second Indochina War, little has been written about the United States cross-border ground reconnaissance operations conducted in Laos and Cambodia. Despite this absence of data, the participation of the U.S. Military Assistance Command Vietnam’s (MACV) Studies and Observation Group (SOG), and its ground reconnaissance component, Operations 35 (OPS-35), in strategic intelligence gathering is a historical fact. Although little has been written about the SOG and its troops, a picture of the unit’s activities can be reconstructed and studied from several of the verbal and written sources that have been made public

What does he have to say about "Operation Daniel Boone," aka "Salem House?"

Concurrent with the Prairie Fire operations were the SOG’s missions in northeastern Cambodia. These operations, originally named “Daniel Boone,” were later redesignated “Salem House.” These missions provided intelligence on North Vietnamese and Viet Cong bases located in Cambodia. Another objective of the Salem House operations was to determine the level of Cambodian Government support for the NVA and Viet Cong.

The Salem House operations had a number of restrictions that affected their activities in Cambodia. Many of the restrictions were modified or withdrawn and new restrictions imposed; the pattern of change in the restrictions presents an interesting picture of the war’s development in Cambodia. In May 1967, the Salem House missions were subject to the following restrictions:

Only reconnaissance teams were to be committed into Cambodia and the teams could not exceed an overall strength of 12 men, to include not more than three U.S. advisers.
Teams were not to engage in combat except to avoid capture.
They did have permission to have contact with civilians.
No more than three reconnaissance teams could be committed on operations in Cambodia at any one time.
The teams could conduct no more than ten missions in any 30-day period.

By October 1967, SOG’s teams had permission to infiltrate the entire Cambodian border area to a depth of 20 kilometers. However, their helicopters were only permitted ten kilometers inside Cambodia. In December, the DOD, with the Department of State’s concurrence, approved the use of Forward Air Controllers (FACs) to support SOG operations. The FACs had authorization to make two flights in support of each Salem House mission.

In October 1968, SOG teams received permission to emplace self-destructing land mines in Cambodia. The following December, the depth of penetration into northern Cambodia was extended to 30 kilometers; however, the 20-kilometer limit remained in effect for central and southern Cambodia. The final adjustment in Salem House operations made in 1970 during the incursion into Cambodia permitted reconnaissance teams to operate 200 meters west of the Mekong River (an average distance of 185 kilometers west of the South Vietnamese border). However, the SOG reconnaissance teams never ventured that far west, due to the lift and range limitations of their UH-1F helicopters. Thus from the initiation of SOG’s Cambodian operations in 1967 until 1970, there was a progressive expansion of the zones of operation and OPS-35 patrols within Cambodia. The enlargement of the areas of operation and the increasing number of Salem House missions, gives an indication of how seriously the Johnson and Nixon Administrations viewed the NVA’s use of Cambodian base areas. It was also indicative of the U.S. military’s growing awareness of the role of the Central Office for South Vietnam (COSVN) and its deleterious effect on the war in South Vietnam.

From 1967 through April 1972, OPS-35 conducted 1,398 reconnaissance missions, 38 platoon-sized patrols, and 12 multi-platoon operations in Cambodia. During the same period, it captured 24 prisoners of war.


Note to myself: Sources from footnotes:
14. U.S. Congressional Record, Senate, 10 September 1972, page 29051. For details on Salem House missions, see Hearings Before the Committee on Armed Services, U.S. Senate, Ninety-Third Congress: Bombing Cambodia; July 16, 23, 25, 26, 30 and August 7, 8, 9, 1973, pages 231-255.

15. BDM, The Strategic Lessons, Volume 6, pages 4-43 to 4-54.

16. Shawcross, William, Sideshow: Kissinger, Nixon and the Destruction of Cambodia (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1981), page 24. Hearings: Committee on Armed Services, Senate, July-August 1973, page 236. U.S. Congressional Record, Senate, 10 September 1973, page 29052. U.S. Congressional Record, Senate, 25 July 1973, page 25881.

17. U.S. Congressional Record, Senate, 10 September 1973, page 29051. Hearings: Committee on Armed Services, Senate, July-August 1973, pages 232-255.

PBS Transcript

On the question of Cambodia and U.S. forces is this transcript:


NORODOM SIHANOUK, November 1967

It would be immoral to support, you know, your aggression, the aggression of the United States against the people of Vietnam. We want to have the right to continue to have the right to be united, to be free, and how could we deny to Vietnam the right to self-determination?


NARRATOR

Pursuing their enemy, American and South Vietnamese aircraft often attacked across the Cambodian border. Sihanouk criticized Secretary of State Dean Rusk, who was then trying to repair relations.

PRESS CONFERENCE, November 1967

SIHANOUK: There is a contradiction between the declaration of friendship and

respect from Mr. Dean Rusk on one hand and on the other hand your

forces in South Vietnam continue to come into Cambodia and to kill..

INTERVIEWER: ...what is necessary...

SIHANOUK: ...our peasants and innocent peasants, innocent civilian servants.


NARRATOR

In 1969, newly elected President Nixon launched secret B-52 bombing raids over Cambodia against North Vietnamese and Vietcong sanctuaries driving them further into the country. Nixon neither informed Sihanouk, nor sought his approval for this escalation

Kerry in Cambodia

I got into a discussion over on Slate's today with someone which tangentially mentioned the various charges of the Swift boat veterans. At one point, this conservative poster gleefully announced that Kerry had been proven a liar on his claims that he'd been in Cambodia during his Vietnam war service.

The discussion of this episode strike me as very curious. Kerry's charge, made at various points and stated in various manners, is that he knew Nixon's claim there were no U.S. forces in Cambodia prior to 1970 was false, because he himself had been in Cambodia during December of '68 or early 1969.

Interestingly, this allegation has been decried as patently false. Take the following article from The Seattle Times:


The book "Unfit for Command," put out by members of Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, contends "all the living commanders in Kerry's chain of command ... indicate that Kerry would have been seriously disciplined or court-martialed had he gone" to Cambodia.

Yet the Kerry campaign said it was far from rare for American forces to pursue Viet Cong over the border.
...
Hoffmann, the retired admiral, said he was leery of Kerry's claim to have ventured into Cambodia in early 1969 to deliver CIA operatives or special-forces soldiers.

"I was always properly informed. The whole time I was there, I don't recall" such a mission, Hoffmann said.


What's strange about this line of refutation is that it seems false on its face.

There was apparently a routine program of cross-border incursions in 1967, 1968, and 1969 involving U.S. Special-Ops forces known as "Operation Daniel Boone." It doesn't have a huge internet footprint, so far as I can see. This bibliographic reference seems to indicate it's in the public record, and this medal citation offers a description of an extraction under fire of a team of Special Forces agents under the aegis of Daniel Boone.

I'm gonna' dig a little deeper into this. It's always been my understanding that Cambodia's ostensible neutrality was kind of a fiction, and that there were in fact numerous U.S. operations inside Cambodia.

Admittedly, though, the substantiating evidence of that has proven far more difficult to find that I had anticipated.

UPDATE:
Dubious hosting source, but putative transcripts of the War Crimes Hearings before the senate. In the testimony of one "GREG HAYWARD Capt, U.S. Army West Point, Class oS 1964":

Another instance, specific instance of a violation of the rules of land warfare was when we planned the artillery bombardment of a hospital installation in Cambodia. We had a FSB called Diamond, 2,000 or 3,000 meters inside South Vietnam from Cambodia, and it was there as bait, you will, because that was when we got our best BODY COUNT ratios, when we were attacked a night on our FSBs and we were successful in luring the enemy across the border into attacking us, and we had preplanned artillery are on the 9th VC's div hospital complex in Cambodia. The plan was, should we not need all our air power and artillery power to protect the Diamond are support base, that a portion of that would be allocated to are into Cambodia on this hospital complex--another clear violation of the rules of land warfare.

Friday Horse Race

As I write this, the Tradesports exchange is steeply discounting the prices of Bush contracts in Colorado on the strength of simultaneous polls from SurveyUSA and Rasmussen indicating an exact tie in that state. Overall there has been a broad and shallow uptick in support for Bush over the last week. The total cost of one contract for Bush in each state ("The Bush Industrial Average) has risen to 2851, which is just above 2850... a score I consider it a benchmark since I tend to think in units of 25.

Major movements since last week:


  • Strong Kerry to Weak Kerry - Iowa (40.1%)
  • Weak Kerry to Strong Kerry - New Hampshire (38%)
  • Strong Bush to Weak Bush - West Virginia (52%)
  • Weak Bush to Strong Bush - Arkansas (63%),


If each state has exactly as many voters in 2004 as in 2000, and each state voted according to the trading odds, Kerry would be leading the popular vote by a margin of +6.02%, or 6.3 million votes

Odds


Bush: Strong - 197; Weak - 77; Total - 274
Kerry: Strong - 244; Weak - 17; Total - 264


On the popular map, there has been a slew of recent pollings which seems to indicate a collapse for both candidates in their strongest states. Polls indicate a substantially narrower race in states like New Mexico and California as well as Colorado and substantial narrowing in several states which remain far from close Major movers:

  • Strong Kerry to Weak Kerry - New Mexico (+3%)
  • Tied to Weak Bush - Nevada (+3%), Ohio (+2%)
  • Weak Bush to Weak Kerry - West Virginia (+1%)
  • Strong Bush to Weak Bush - Colorado (+1%)


Polls

Bush: Strong - 178; Weak - 64; Total - 242
Kerry: Strong - 235; Weak - 58; Total - 293
Delaware: 3



If each candidate were to receive a proportion of votes cast in 2000 equal to their current poll-rating, Kerry would be leading the popular vote by a margin of 1.78%, or 1.7 million votes.

Thursday, August 19, 2004

New Mexico

John Kerry should crush Bush in New Mexico.

Remember how, in 2000, Gore narrowly bested Bush by a margin of 366 votes?


Well, check out the registration data for the state. Democrats outnumber Republicans and independents COMBINED.

Bush carried 20 of New Mexico's 33 counties in 2000. In only 9 of those counties do Republicans outnumber Democrats.

There were 15 counties in 2000 where turnout was below the rate of the entire state. Bush carried 12 of these. In 6 of these Republican-voting, underperforming counties, Democrats outnumber Republicans.

It would seem that turnout among registered Democrats significantly lagged behind turnout among registered Republicans in 2000. This is a known tendency, and it's naive to think that it will change in 2004.

But what is clear is that New Mexico was close in the 2000 election because Bush attracted support from Democrats, and Democratic turnout didn't match Republican turnout.

If Kerry can generate sufficient enthusiasm and support from the state's Democrats, he can slip New Mexico into his pocket without hardly trying. If registered Democrats favored Kerry by 80%-20% and had a turnoutrate of 60%, Kerry could win with no more than 10% of the Republican vote and 20% of the Independent vote.

So, while every state hinges on Kerry's ability to persuade voters, New Mexico is one which especially pivots on the ability to rally the "faithful." Kerry will need to do especially well among the silent Democrats of south eastern New Mexico, where several counties give Democrats a registration advantage, but Bush captured a wide margin of votes in 2000...
UPDATE:
The first version of this post was more in-depth. Blogger ate it.

I forgot to mention that population has declined in 16 counties, 10 of which favored Bush in 2000.