Friday Horse Race

As I write this, the Tradesports exchange is steeply discounting the prices of Bush contracts in Colorado on the strength of simultaneous polls from SurveyUSA and Rasmussen indicating an exact tie in that state. Overall there has been a broad and shallow uptick in support for Bush over the last week. The total cost of one contract for Bush in each state ("The Bush Industrial Average) has risen to 2851, which is just above 2850... a score I consider it a benchmark since I tend to think in units of 25.

Major movements since last week:

• Strong Kerry to Weak Kerry - Iowa (40.1%)
  
• Weak Kerry to Strong Kerry - New Hampshire (38%)
  
• Strong Bush to Weak Bush - West Virginia (52%)
  
• Weak Bush to Strong Bush - Arkansas (63%),

If each state has exactly as many voters in 2004 as in 2000, and each state voted according to the trading odds, Kerry would be leading the popular vote by a margin of +6.02%, or 6.3 million votes

Odds

Bush: Strong - 197; Weak - 77; Total - 274
Kerry: Strong - 244; Weak - 17; Total - 264

On the popular map, there has been a slew of recent pollings which seems to indicate a collapse for both candidates in their strongest states. Polls indicate a substantially narrower race in states like New Mexico and California as well as Colorado and substantial narrowing in several states which remain far from close Major movers:

• Strong Kerry to Weak Kerry - New Mexico (+3%)
  
• Tied to Weak Bush - Nevada (+3%), Ohio (+2%)
  
• Weak Bush to Weak Kerry - West Virginia (+1%)
  
• Strong Bush to Weak Bush - Colorado (+1%)

Polls

Bush: Strong - 178; Weak - 64; Total - 242
Kerry: Strong - 235; Weak - 58; Total - 293
Delaware: 3

If each candidate were to receive a proportion of votes cast in 2000 equal to their current poll-rating, Kerry would be leading the popular vote by a margin of 1.78%, or 1.7 million votes.