Friday Horse Race

For those who are interested in looking at the graphical historical breakdown, I suggest the following links: Odds and Polls

In the Tradesports exchange, Bush continues his ascent. The Bush Industrial Average (the price of one contract in every state) has now broken 3150 standing at 3157.5 this morning. This gives Bush a projected advantage of 7.8 million votes (a gross distortion endemic to extrapolating from odds). Here's the map of the odds:

Odds

Bush: Strong - 284; Weak - 11; Total - 295
Kerry: Strong - 207; Weak - 36; Total - 243

In the averaged polls, Bush's lead is slipping slightly, as he's declined since last week by 8 electoral votes. Unfortunately, this actually brings the electoral projection back into parity with the gambling projection. Given national polls, we should expect over the next two weeks to see a further Bush decline in my map. Remember, by using averages of several polls, my model inherently lags reality by anywhere from one to three weeks (better in frequently polled states, atrocious in states considered a "lock"). If each state voted in accordance with its averaged poll results, Bush would win the popular vote by 1.6 million. This is a decline from last week.

Polls

Bush: Strong - 211; Weak - 84; Total - 295
Kerry: Strong - 181; Weak - 62; Total - 243

As you can see, an increasing number of states appear to be in play. It is astonishing how close the electoral college remains under all these various scenarios.