A Legacy or a Mandate?

As Democrats hash out the way to go forward, many will be tempted to flirt with the idea that Clinton brought them two victories, and thus the key lies with his counsel. Don't believe it. Bill Clinton did not win the kind of victories that the Democratic Party needs. The presence of Ross Perot on the ballot in 1992 and 1996 helped to mask the fundamental weakness of Clinton's support. However, if Dole had simply carried each state in which the combined total of Dole's votes and Perot's votes exceeded his own votes, he would have lost the election of '96.

Here is how the election actually turned out:


Here is how it would have turned out if Perot is added to Dole:


What a difference a freak makes. Bob Dole wins the second scenario by 288 electoral votse to Bill Clinton's 250. Clinton got lucky. Careful about putting your money on Clintonism.