Bush did OK.

I wouldn't say he "knocked it out of the park." But he did OK. We'll get back to that, but first...

1) Let's just get this off the table. Kerry embarrassed himself with his answer to the gay marriage question. John Kerry embarrassed me. Fine, fundamentalist Christians don't like to be reminded of Cheney's GAY DAUGHTER. And gays like me hate to see Democrats pandering to the rankest kind of homophobic bigotry. I see Bush's evangelical codewords, "Dred Scott" or "stewardship" and I know what they mean. But they're neither half so abhorrent, nor half so crass as this despicable discussion of Cheney's daughter. That's private business, and... well, if Edwards was put in an awkward situation, Kerry just manufactured and uncomfortable situation.

But anyhow...

2) I would have liked to hear more about Bush's reservations about believing "major news organizations." Unfortunately for me, he chose (quite explicitly) not to go there....

3) I still think Bush lost this debate. I'm sure the CW is likely to say it was a "draw" and thus it was a Bush victory, but I doubt it. I'll give Bush credit - he didn't come across as psychopathic tonight. I dunno if they doped him up on lithium, or if he just spent a lot of time listening to light jazz before his performance, but this was the first debate that he did not come across as an asshole. Good for him. But on issues, I still think Kerry trounced Bush.

4) Kerry's contesting the Catholic vote. And quite frankly, I don't think Bush OR Rove have fully appreciated the difference between a traditionalist Catholic and a traditionalist evangelical Protestant. Bush's rhetoric seems custom-designed to alienate conservative Catholics. We'll know in less than a month whether I'm right on that, but my guess is that Kerry is going to crush Bush in the Catholic vote. Most Catholics know how difficult it is to square the religious positions of the Catholic Church with the civic obligations of an American citizen. Bush is unwarrantedly disdainful of that kind of "nuance." I can't say what a WASP in Atlanta will hear in that debate... but I suspect a Catholic in Atlanta is going to have second thoughts about Bush.

5) On health care. My company outsources it's human-resources department. I originally had a Blue Shield High PPO, which was a great plan. Of course, they abandoned that plan, and I've been forced into a HealthNet PPO, which has been a bane in the life of more than one of my friends and family members. When Kerry talks about choice, my guess is that people with actual jobs will hear a resonance they don't find in Bush's discussion of litigation reform. More people have probably lost a good HMO for a cheaper alternative than have been involved in a medical malpractice suit.

6) Bush on jobs. "Go back to elementary school." It may be a Blue State phenomenon - but many people HAVE lost jobs in the last four years. Education is great, but a lot of people are worried about their own joblessness. And I don't see how a better education for third graders is going to help with that.

7) Bush on taxes - Come on, really. How much have you seen?

8) Bush on Kerry's record - I thought he sounded pathetic. The charge that Kerrry voted to raise taxes "227" times just SOUNDS absurd. He's only been a Senator for 20 years! My guess is that they've seized on this number as a mistaken gamble for clarity. It sounds absurd. My guess is that most people will think it rings of fishy numbers. Twelve times, I bet the critique would have some bite. But 227? Sounds nutty.

9) Kerry's defeated the "flip-flop" charge in the debates. He's willing to argue for things that are not popular. One of Bush's big failures has been to recognize Kerry's growing ownership and refutation of the "flip-flop issue".

10) I doubt "normal people" caught it. But wasn't it silly to hear Bush sneering that "Kerry makes Ted Kennedy the CONSERVATIVE Senator from Massachussetts" and then to hear him a few minutes later boasting about how he worked with Ted Kennedy to pass the "No Child Left Behind Act." That's Bush's idea of bi-partisanship. I'll brag about having worked with you once, but I'll use your name as the proxy for an insult at a moment's notice. I'm sure the French are familiar with that feeling - that schizophrenic emphasis on his interest in "diplomacy" combined with the sneering disdain with the putative objects of that exact same diplomacy.

So, overall, I'd say this debate was a "draw." But I think that it was a draw which is going to HURT Bush more than help him. People are likely to say that a "draw" is better for Bush than Kerry, but I suspect they'll be wrong. Kerry grabbed the momentum, and Bush failed to take it back. My guess is that for average people, Bush's failure, even at his best to decisively call into question Kerry's fitness for office is likely to cinch the deal for Kerry.

If I were to call the election based solely on the results of this debate, I'd say it's all Kerry's race from this point forward.